Primera División
Finished
High risk

Sporting San Jose vs Escorpiones Belén

20Full time
Tue, Aug 18, 02:00 AMEstadio Puente de Piedra

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 41/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Sporting San Jose (LLWLD) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 0.9 for Escorpiones Belén (LDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 41/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

41/100

Confidence
41/100

Strongest cover

1X

77.3% probability

Risk classification

High

27.6% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SSJ win49.7%
Draw27.6%
EB win22.7%

Goals

Over 1.566.8%
Over 2.539.4%
Under 2.560.6%

Both teams to score

Yes45.5%
No54.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Sporting San Jose

4/15 recent form points

LLWLD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.86
Shots on target
Unavailable

Escorpiones Belén

1/9 recent form points

LDL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.33
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/1 and Over 2.5 in 0/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Sporting San Jose 2-0 Escorpiones Belén

2026-08-18T04:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Sporting San Jose at home has a slightly stronger overall profile than Escorpiones Belén away, with 9 wins, 11 draws, and 16 losses across 36 matches, plus 31 goals scored and 40 conceded. Their recent form is mixed (LLWLD), but they have shown enough ability to avoid defeat at times, which supports a home-leaning outcome. Escorpiones Belén’s away sample is very small (3 matches), with 0 wins and 2 losses, scoring only 1 goal while conceding 4. That makes an away win less likely, and the draw becomes a more realistic alternative if Sporting San Jose fails to convert chances. The match also looks somewhat low-to-moderate scoring based on the probabilities provided: over 2.5 goals is at 39.4%, while both teams to score is at 45.5%. With Sporting San Jose conceding 40 in 36 matches and Belén scoring only 1 in 3 away games, a home win is plausible, but not strongly supported, which aligns with the high risk level and the modest confidence score of 41.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 47.0% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1715 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:15 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Sporting San Jose predictions · Escorpiones Belén predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.