Every forecast this model publishes is recorded before kickoff and settled against the final score — wins and losses alike. Nothing here is illustrative, and nothing can be edited after the fact.
A forecast enters the ledger only while its fixture is still scheduled. Post-kickoff information can never leak into a recorded probability.
The best available pre-match odds are frozen alongside each forecast. ROI is computed at those prices, not at prices found later.
Predictions are graded automatically against the provider's final score once the match completes. No manual grading.
Rows are never updated or deleted. Losing streaks stay in the ledger and in every published statistic.
Every forecast is written to a ledger before kickoff with its probability and the best pre-match price available at capture. After the match finishes, the prediction is graded against the final score. Accuracy, ROI, and calibration are computed only from those settled rows — never estimated, backfilled, or simulated.
No. Ledger rows are create-only: a prediction is recorded once, before the match starts, and its settlement result is written once. Losing predictions remain in the ledger and in every statistic permanently.
ROI assumes a flat one-unit stake on every prediction at the best pre-match price captured when the forecast was recorded. Predictions whose market was not quoted are excluded from ROI but still count toward accuracy.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
Forecasts are being recorded before kickoff and will be graded automatically as their matches finish. The first settled predictions appear here within days — this page will never show an estimated or simulated figure in the meantime.
Awaiting settlement
8
Settled so far
0