Public ledger

Track record

Every forecast this model publishes is recorded before kickoff and settled against the final score — wins and losses alike. Nothing here is illustrative, and nothing can be edited after the fact.

Download full CSV Methodology

Recorded before kickoff

A forecast enters the ledger only while its fixture is still scheduled. Post-kickoff information can never leak into a recorded probability.

Priced at capture

The best available pre-match odds are frozen alongside each forecast. ROI is computed at those prices, not at prices found later.

Settled against results

Predictions are graded automatically against the provider's final score once the match completes. No manual grading.

Create-only history

Rows are never updated or deleted. Losing streaks stay in the ledger and in every published statistic.

How is LiveWin.ai prediction accuracy measured?

Every forecast is written to a ledger before kickoff with its probability and the best pre-match price available at capture. After the match finishes, the prediction is graded against the final score. Accuracy, ROI, and calibration are computed only from those settled rows — never estimated, backfilled, or simulated.

Can past predictions be edited or deleted?

No. Ledger rows are create-only: a prediction is recorded once, before the match starts, and its settlement result is written once. Losing predictions remain in the ledger and in every statistic permanently.

How is ROI calculated?

ROI assumes a flat one-unit stake on every prediction at the best pre-match price captured when the forecast was recorded. Predictions whose market was not quoted are excluded from ROI but still count toward accuracy.

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.

Forecast band	Mean forecast	Observed frequency	Gap	Sample
0-40%	39%	35.7%	-3.30 pts	14
40-50%	46.3%	47.7%	+1.40 pts	488
50-60%	55.5%	53.7%	-1.80 pts	1255
60-70%	64.1%	62.5%	-1.60 pts	838
70-80%	73.8%	77.6%	+3.80 pts	210
80-100%	83%	79.5%	-3.50 pts	39

Forecast band

Mean forecast

Observed frequency

Gap

Sample

0-40%

39%

35.7%

-3.30 pts

40-50%

46.3%

47.7%

+1.40 pts

488

50-60%

55.5%

53.7%

-1.80 pts

1255

60-70%

64.1%

62.5%

-1.60 pts

838

70-80%

73.8%

77.6%

+3.80 pts

210

80-100%

83%

79.5%

-3.50 pts

Kickoff	Fixture	Prediction	Model prob.	Price	Result	Outcome	P/L
12 Sept 2026	Necaxa v Puebla Liga MX	BTTS Yes	55.4%	unpriced	0-1	Lost	—
12 Sept 2026	Boca Juniors v Central Cordoba de Santiago Liga Profesional Argentina	Home Win	60.5%	unpriced	3-1	Won	—

Kickoff

Fixture

Prediction

Model prob.

Price

Result

Outcome

P/L

12 Sept 2026

Necaxa v Puebla

Liga MX

BTTS Yes

55.4%

unpriced

0-1

Lost

—

12 Sept 2026

Boca Juniors v Central Cordoba de Santiago

Liga Profesional Argentina

Home Win

60.5%

unpriced

3-1

Won

—

Track record

Recorded before kickoff

Priced at capture

Settled against results

Create-only history

How is LiveWin.ai prediction accuracy measured?

Can past predictions be edited or deleted?

How is ROI calculated?

Track record

Recorded before kickoff

Priced at capture

Settled against results

Create-only history

Forecast probability versus reality

Hit rate per market

Every version keeps its record

Latest 50 of 2980 settled predictions

How is LiveWin.ai prediction accuracy measured?

Can past predictions be edited or deleted?

How is ROI calculated?

Forecast probability versus reality

Hit rate per market

Every version keeps its record

Latest 50 of 2980 settled predictions