U19 Bundesliga
Pre-match
High risk

Bayern München U19 vs Stuttgart U19

Wed, Aug 19, 12:00 PM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 40/100

Model verdict
High risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Bayern München U19 (LWDDL) project at 2.3 expected goals versus 1.7 for Stuttgart U19 (LLLDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 40/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

40/100

Confidence
40/100

Strongest cover

12

78.5% probability

Risk classification

High

21.5% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

42 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

BMU win39.2%
Draw21.5%
SU win39.3%

Goals

Over 1.591.7%
Over 2.575.2%
Under 2.524.8%

Both teams to score

Yes74.6%
No25.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Bayern München U19

5/15 recent form points

LWDDL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.65
Shots on target
Unavailable

Stuttgart U19

1/15 recent form points

LLLDL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.78
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 8/10 and Over 2.5 in 9/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 19, 09:01 AM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Stuttgart U19 7-2 Bayern München U19

2024-05-11T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bayern München U19 0-3 Stuttgart U19

2024-01-27T11:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Bayern München U19 1-3 Stuttgart U19

2022-10-29T11:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bayern München U19 1-3 Stuttgart U19

2022-03-13T11:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bayern München U19 1-4 Stuttgart U19

2021-10-02T11:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Stuttgart U19 2-2 Bayern München U19

2020-10-16T18:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bayern München U19 3-1 Stuttgart U19

2020-03-08T11:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Stuttgart U19 1-4 Bayern München U19

2019-09-27T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bayern München U19 4-4 Stuttgart U19

2019-03-09T11:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Stuttgart U19 0-2 Bayern München U19

2018-09-29T12:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Draw
1X2
PinnacleBest price +3.3%4.1724.0%21.5%-2.5%
Dafabet4.1024.4%21.5%-2.9%
10Bet4.0025.0%21.5%-3.5%
Superbet4.0025.0%21.5%-3.5%
Marathonbet3.9825.1%21.5%-3.6%
1xBet3.9825.1%21.5%-3.6%
Home
1X2
SuperbetBest price +2.0%2.4241.3%39.2%-2.1%
Dafabet2.4241.3%39.2%-2.1%
10Bet2.3842.0%39.2%-2.8%
Marathonbet2.3442.7%39.2%-3.5%
1xBet2.3442.7%39.2%-3.5%
Pinnacle2.3342.9%39.2%-3.7%
Away
1X2
MarathonbetBest price +1.2%2.3043.5%39.3%-4.2%
1xBet2.3043.5%39.3%-4.2%
Pinnacle2.2943.7%39.3%-4.4%
10Bet2.2544.4%39.3%-5.1%
Superbet2.2544.4%39.3%-5.1%
Dafabet2.2544.4%39.3%-5.1%
Under 2.5
Totals
MarathonbetBest price +1.2%3.6827.2%24.8%-2.4%
1xBet3.6827.2%24.8%-2.4%
Superbet3.5528.2%24.8%-3.4%
Over 2.5
Totals
SuperbetBest price +0.6%1.2182.6%75.2%-7.4%
Marathonbet1.2083.3%75.2%-8.1%
1xBet1.2083.3%75.2%-8.1%
No
BTTS
1xBetBest price +2.5%3.7027.0%25.4%-1.6%
Marathonbet3.5827.9%25.4%-2.5%
Superbet3.5528.2%25.4%-2.8%
Yes
BTTS
SuperbetBest price +1.6%1.2580.0%74.6%-5.4%
Marathonbet1.2282.0%74.6%-7.4%
1xBet1.2282.0%74.6%-7.4%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
SuperbetBest price +1.0%1.5066.7%0.0%-66.7%
10Bet1.4867.6%0.0%-67.6%
Marathonbet1.4867.6%0.0%-67.6%
1xBet1.4867.6%0.0%-67.6%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
10BetBest price +2.0%1.5066.7%0.0%-66.7%
Marathonbet1.4768.0%0.0%-68.0%
1xBet1.4768.0%0.0%-68.0%
Superbet1.4469.4%0.0%-69.4%
Home or Away
Double Chance
SuperbetBest price +0.9%1.1785.5%0.0%-85.5%
Marathonbet1.1686.2%0.0%-86.2%
1xBet1.1686.2%0.0%-86.2%
10Bet1.1587.0%0.0%-87.0%

Model reasoning

Bayern München U19 have scored 61 goals in 23 matches and conceded 42, while Stuttgart U19 have scored 64 and conceded 40. That points to both sides being involved in regular scoring rather than keeping games tightly controlled, even though each team has only one clean sheet across the season. The recent form also suggests limited defensive stability. Bayern’s last five results are LWDDL, and Stuttgart’s are LLLDL, with both sequences including multiple matches that likely produced goals given their season concession totals. With both teams averaging roughly 2.7 to 2.8 goals scored per match combined (based on goals for and against), the matchup profile supports an Over 2.5 goals outcome. The provided probabilities reflect that, with over 2.5 goals at 75.2% and both teams to score at 74.6%. The confidence is moderate and the risk is high, since the match could still swing toward a lower-scoring script despite the season scoring rates. The close home win and away win probabilities (39.2% vs 39.3%) also suggests the result is fairly balanced, which can sometimes affect goal totals.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 19 Aug 2026 11:02 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Bayern München U19 predictions · Stuttgart U19 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.