Pre-match

High risk

Pamba Jiji vs Simba

Wed, Aug 19, 01:15 PM

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 56/100

Model verdict

High risk

Away Win

Pamba Jiji (LWLLL) project at 0.8 expected goals versus 1.4 for Simba (WWWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 56/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

56/100

Confidence

56/100

Strongest cover

88.0% probability

Risk classification

High

23.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

52 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

PJ win12%

Draw23.1%

S win64.9%

Goals

Over 1.565.2%

Over 2.543.4%

Under 2.556.6%

Both teams to score

Yes41.3%

No58.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Pamba Jiji

3/15 recent form points

LWLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Simba

15/15 recent form points

WWWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.80
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/4 and Over 2.5 in 2/4.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 19, 09:05 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Simba 2-1 Pamba Jiji

2026-06-14T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Pamba Jiji 1-1 Simba

2026-03-19T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Simba 5-1 Pamba Jiji

2025-05-08T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Pamba Jiji 0-1 Simba

2024-11-22T14:15:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +11.7%	7.80	12.8%	12.0%	-0.8%
	10Bet	7.50	13.3%	12.0%	-1.3%
	Betfair	7.50	13.3%	12.0%	-1.3%
	William Hill	7.00	14.3%	12.0%	-2.3%
	Bet365	7.00	14.3%	12.0%	-2.3%
	Unibet	5.10	19.6%	12.0%	-7.6%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +7.3%	4.00	25.0%	23.1%	-1.9%
	Marathonbet	3.92	25.5%	23.1%	-2.4%
	Bet365	3.80	26.3%	23.1%	-3.2%
	10Bet	3.75	26.7%	23.1%	-3.6%
	William Hill	3.50	28.6%	23.1%	-5.5%
	Unibet	3.40	29.4%	23.1%	-6.3%
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +10.0%	1.56	64.1%	64.9%	+0.8%
	Bet365	1.42	70.4%	64.9%	-5.5%
	10Bet	1.40	71.4%	64.9%	-6.5%
	William Hill	1.40	71.4%	64.9%	-6.5%
	Marathonbet	1.37	73.0%	64.9%	-8.1%
	Betfair	1.36	73.5%	64.9%	-8.6%
Over 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +6.0%	2.23	44.8%	43.4%	-1.4%
	Bet365	2.15	46.5%	43.4%	-3.1%
	Betfair	2.10	47.6%	43.4%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	2.04	49.0%	43.4%	-5.6%
	10Bet	2.00	50.0%	43.4%	-6.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +2.7%	1.68	59.5%	56.6%	-2.9%
	Bet365	1.67	59.9%	56.6%	-3.3%
	10Bet	1.65	60.6%	56.6%	-4.0%
	Betfair	1.65	60.6%	56.6%	-4.0%
	Unibet	1.53	65.4%	56.6%	-8.8%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +2.7%	2.29	43.7%	41.3%	-2.4%
	Betfair	2.25	44.4%	41.3%	-3.1%
	William Hill	2.15	46.5%	41.3%	-5.2%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +3.4%	1.62	61.7%	58.7%	-3.0%
	Betfair	1.57	63.7%	58.7%	-5.0%
	Marathonbet	1.51	66.2%	58.7%	-7.5%
Home or Draw Double Chance	10BetBest price +11.6%	2.75	36.4%	0.0%	-36.4%
	Betfair	2.75	36.4%	0.0%	-36.4%
	Marathonbet	2.62	38.2%	0.0%	-38.2%
	William Hill	2.50	40.0%	0.0%	-40.0%
	Bet365	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	Unibet	2.06	48.5%	0.0%	-48.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.6%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Unibet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	10Bet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +4.4%	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	Unibet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
	William Hill	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%
	Betfair	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%
	10Bet	1.02	98.0%	0.0%	-98.0%
	Marathonbet	1.02	98.0%	0.0%	-98.0%

Model reasoning

Simba’s away profile looks much stronger than Pamba Jiji’s home output. Simba has 22 wins from 30 matches with only 1 loss, while Pamba Jiji has 8 wins from 29 and a negative goal record at home-level season totals (29 scored, 35 conceded). Defensively, Simba stands out with 11 goals conceded across 30 matches and 21 clean sheets, which suggests they can limit Pamba Jiji’s scoring chances. Pamba Jiji’s recent form is also weak (LWLLL), whereas Simba’s recent form is very strong (WWWWW). For match outcome, the probabilities lean toward Simba: away win is 64.9% versus home win at 12.0% and draw at 23.1%. The high risk level fits the fact that draws are still plausible (23.1%), and the goal-market signals are more mixed than the result market, with over 2.5 goals at 43.4% and both teams to score at 41.3%. Overall, Simba’s combination of superior results, strong defense, and excellent recent form supports an away win lean, but the moderate goal probabilities mean it may not be a high-scoring, one-sided game.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 19 Aug 2026 11:01 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.