Pre-match

High risk

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Wisła Kraków II

Wed, Aug 19, 02:30 PM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 45/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów (LWWLW) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 1.4 for Wisła Kraków II (LWWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 45/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

45/100

Confidence

45/100

Strongest cover

76.2% probability

Risk classification

High

23.8% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

47 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

PL win33.6%

Draw23.8%

WKI win42.6%

Goals

Over 1.584.4%

Over 2.565.7%

Under 2.534.3%

Both teams to score

Yes68.3%

No31.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

9/15 recent form points

LWWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.79
Shots on target: Unavailable

Wisła Kraków II

12/15 recent form points

LWWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.97
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/4 and Over 2.5 in 4/4.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 19, 08:48 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Wisła Kraków II 3-1 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

2026-05-23T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 3-3 Wisła Kraków II

2025-11-08T13:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 2-1 Wisła Kraków II

2025-04-05T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Wisła Kraków II 6-4 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

2024-09-07T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	PinnacleBest price +4.5%	3.83	26.1%	23.8%	-2.3%
	Marathonbet	3.78	26.5%	23.8%	-2.7%
	1xBet	3.78	26.5%	23.8%	-2.7%
	Unibet	3.60	27.8%	23.8%	-4.0%
	10Bet	3.50	28.6%	23.8%	-4.8%
	William Hill	3.50	28.6%	23.8%	-4.8%
Home 1X2	10BetBest price +3.1%	2.80	35.7%	33.6%	-2.1%
	William Hill	2.75	36.4%	33.6%	-2.8%
	1xBet	2.74	36.5%	33.6%	-2.9%
	Unibet	2.70	37.0%	33.6%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	2.69	37.2%	33.6%	-3.6%
	Pinnacle	2.62	38.2%	33.6%	-4.6%
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +1.2%	2.12	47.2%	42.6%	-4.6%
	10Bet	2.10	47.6%	42.6%	-5.0%
	William Hill	2.10	47.6%	42.6%	-5.0%
	Marathonbet	2.10	47.6%	42.6%	-5.0%
	Unibet	2.08	48.1%	42.6%	-5.5%
	Pinnacle	2.07	48.3%	42.6%	-5.7%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +4.8%	2.78	36.0%	34.3%	-1.7%
	1xBet	2.78	36.0%	34.3%	-1.7%
	Pinnacle	2.55	39.2%	34.3%	-4.9%
	Unibet	2.50	40.0%	34.3%	-5.7%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +3.3%	1.42	70.4%	65.7%	-4.7%
	Unibet	1.40	71.4%	65.7%	-5.7%
	Marathonbet	1.34	74.6%	65.7%	-8.9%
	1xBet	1.34	74.6%	65.7%	-8.9%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +1.6%	2.95	33.9%	31.7%	-2.2%
	William Hill	2.88	34.7%	31.7%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	2.88	34.7%	31.7%	-3.0%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +1.0%	1.35	74.1%	68.3%	-5.8%
	Marathonbet	1.33	75.2%	68.3%	-6.9%
	1xBet	1.33	75.2%	68.3%	-6.9%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.3%	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	Marathonbet	1.58	63.3%	0.0%	-63.3%
	1xBet	1.58	63.3%	0.0%	-63.3%
	10Bet	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
	Unibet	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +1.8%	1.38	72.5%	0.0%	-72.5%
	William Hill	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Marathonbet	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	1xBet	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Unibet	1.32	75.8%	0.0%	-75.8%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.3%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	10Bet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Marathonbet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Unibet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	1xBet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%

Model reasoning

Wisła Kraków II has a slight edge in overall results, with 15 wins versus Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów’s 14, and they also score a bit more across the season (67 vs 61). Their away record is less dominant than their recent run suggests, but the current form shown as LWWWW points to stronger attacking consistency lately. Both teams’ season goal profiles support a goal-filled match. Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów have conceded 45 in 34 games, while Wisła Kraków II have conceded 58 in 34, and each side has managed 10 clean sheets, meaning shutouts are possible but not guaranteed. The probabilities align with this: both teams to score is 68.3%, and over 2.5 goals is 65.7%. With the match also leaning toward Wisła Kraków II for the away win (42.6% vs 33.6% home), the most likely script is that Wisła find goals while Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów still respond. Confidence is moderate and risk is high (confidenceScore 45), so while BTTS Yes is the lean, the draw and lower-scoring outcomes remain plausible given the mixed recent form for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów (LWWLW).

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 19 Aug 2026 10:30 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów predictions · Wisła Kraków II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.