Pre-match

Medium risk

Nantong Haimen Codion vs Qingdao Red Lions

Wed, Aug 19, 11:30 AMHaimen Sports Center Stadium

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 74/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Nantong Haimen Codion (DLWWW) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1 for Qingdao Red Lions (LLWDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 74/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

74/100

Confidence

74/100

Strongest cover

77.5% probability

Risk classification

Medium

30.2% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

49 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

NHC win47.3%

Draw30.2%

QRL win22.5%

Goals

Over 1.565.5%

Over 2.537.9%

Under 2.562.1%

Both teams to score

Yes44.2%

No55.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Nantong Haimen Codion

10/15 recent form points

DLWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.10
Shots on target: Unavailable

Qingdao Red Lions

7/15 recent form points

LLWDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.05
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/3 and Over 2.5 in 0/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 19, 04:26 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Qingdao Red Lions 0-1 Nantong Haimen Codion

2026-05-23T09:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Nantong Haimen Codion 0-1 Qingdao Red Lions

2023-06-28T10:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Qingdao Red Lions 1-0 Nantong Haimen Codion

2023-04-29T09:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	PinnacleBest price +3.0%	4.01	24.9%	22.5%	-2.4%
	Betano	3.95	25.3%	22.5%	-2.8%
	1xBet	3.94	25.4%	22.5%	-2.9%
	Betfair	3.90	25.6%	22.5%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	3.85	26.0%	22.5%	-3.5%
	William Hill	3.70	27.0%	22.5%	-4.5%
Draw 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +4.4%	3.08	32.5%	30.2%	-2.3%
	1xBet	3.08	32.5%	30.2%	-2.3%
	Betfair	3.00	33.3%	30.2%	-3.1%
	Pinnacle	2.87	34.8%	30.2%	-4.6%
	Betano	2.87	34.8%	30.2%	-4.6%
	William Hill	2.80	35.7%	30.2%	-5.5%
Home 1X2	William HillBest price +2.9%	2.00	50.0%	47.3%	-2.7%
	Betano	1.98	50.5%	47.3%	-3.2%
	Pinnacle	1.97	50.8%	47.3%	-3.5%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	47.3%	-5.1%
	1xBet	1.91	52.4%	47.3%	-5.1%
	Marathonbet	1.89	52.9%	47.3%	-5.6%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +1.3%	2.47	40.5%	37.9%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	2.44	41.0%	37.9%	-3.1%
	1xBet	2.44	41.0%	37.9%	-3.1%
	Betfair	2.40	41.7%	37.9%	-3.8%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +1.0%	1.50	66.7%	62.1%	-4.6%
	Marathonbet	1.48	67.6%	62.1%	-5.5%
	Pinnacle	1.48	67.6%	62.1%	-5.5%
	1xBet	1.48	67.6%	62.1%	-5.5%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +1.4%	2.11	47.4%	44.2%	-3.2%
	1xBet	2.11	47.4%	44.2%	-3.2%
	William Hill	2.10	47.6%	44.2%	-3.4%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	44.2%	-5.8%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +5.3%	1.73	57.8%	55.8%	-2.0%
	William Hill	1.62	61.7%	55.8%	-5.9%
	1xBet	1.62	61.7%	55.8%	-5.9%
	Marathonbet	1.60	62.5%	55.8%	-6.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +4.5%	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	Marathonbet	1.72	58.1%	0.0%	-58.1%
	1xBet	1.72	58.1%	0.0%	-58.1%
	William Hill	1.70	58.8%	0.0%	-58.8%
	Betano	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.5%	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Betano	1.34	74.6%	0.0%	-74.6%
	Betfair	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Marathonbet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	1xBet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.2%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betano	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Marathonbet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	1xBet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%

Model reasoning

Nantong Haimen Codion have scored 22 goals and conceded 20 across 20 matches, with 8 clean sheets. Qingdao Red Lions have scored 21 and conceded 17 across 20 matches, with 5 clean sheets. Both sides’ goal totals and relatively frequent clean sheets suggest games are often kept relatively tight. The market probabilities also lean toward fewer goals: over 2.5 goals is 37.9%, while under 2.5 goals is implied to be more likely. Both teams to score is 44.2%, which aligns with the idea that at least one team may struggle to find the net. Recent form is mixed for both teams, with Nantong showing a stronger run (DLWWW) than Qingdao (LLWDW). That difference can support a lower-scoring script, especially if Qingdao’s scoring has been inconsistent lately. With home win at 47.3% and draw at 30.2%, the match could settle into a controlled outcome rather than a high-scoring one. The under 2.5 goals call has medium risk, since the overall goal profiles are fairly balanced and neither side is clearly dominant in scoring.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:09 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Nantong Haimen Codion predictions · Qingdao Red Lions predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.