Pre-match

Low risk

Olmaliq vs Dinamo Samarqand

Wed, Aug 19, 02:00 PMOKMK Sport Majmuasi

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 77/100

Model verdict

Low risk

Home Win

Olmaliq (WWLWL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.3 for Dinamo Samarqand (WWDLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 77/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

77/100

Confidence

77/100

Strongest cover

77.4% probability

Risk classification

Low

24.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

O win53.3%

Draw24.1%

DS win22.6%

Goals

Over 1.581.7%

Over 2.555.7%

Under 2.544.3%

Both teams to score

Yes57%

No43%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Olmaliq

9/15 recent form points

WWLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.59
Shots on target: Unavailable

Dinamo Samarqand

8/15 recent form points

WWDLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.59
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 19, 08:17 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Dinamo Samarqand 2-2 Olmaliq

2026-04-23T17:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Dinamo Samarqand 1-0 Olmaliq

2025-08-16T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Olmaliq 0-0 Dinamo Samarqand

2025-04-06T17:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Dinamo Samarqand 3-2 Olmaliq

2024-08-16T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Olmaliq 3-1 Dinamo Samarqand

2024-03-17T14:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Olmaliq 4-0 Dinamo Samarqand

2022-10-26T15:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Dinamo Samarqand 1-2 Olmaliq

2022-05-23T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Olmaliq 3-1 Dinamo Samarqand

2019-09-14T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Dinamo Samarqand 1-0 Olmaliq

2019-05-11T14:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Dinamo Samarqand 1-0 Olmaliq

2017-10-13T12:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	BetVictorBest price +6.6%	4.10	24.4%	22.6%	-1.8%
	Betfair	4.00	25.0%	22.6%	-2.4%
	Marathonbet	3.88	25.8%	22.6%	-3.2%
	10Bet	3.80	26.3%	22.6%	-3.7%
	William Hill	3.80	26.3%	22.6%	-3.7%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	22.6%	-6.0%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +8.0%	3.90	25.6%	24.1%	-1.5%
	BetVictor	3.70	27.0%	24.1%	-2.9%
	10Bet	3.60	27.8%	24.1%	-3.7%
	Betfair	3.60	27.8%	24.1%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	3.56	28.1%	24.1%	-4.0%
	William Hill	3.30	30.3%	24.1%	-6.2%
Home 1X2	William HillBest price +1.0%	1.75	57.1%	53.3%	-3.8%
	Bet365	1.75	57.1%	53.3%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	1.74	57.5%	53.3%	-4.2%
	10Bet	1.73	57.8%	53.3%	-4.5%
	BetVictor	1.73	57.8%	53.3%	-4.5%
	Betfair	1.70	58.8%	53.3%	-5.5%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.3%	2.10	47.6%	44.3%	-3.3%
	Betfair	2.10	47.6%	44.3%	-3.3%
	BetVictor	2.10	47.6%	44.3%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	2.07	48.3%	44.3%	-4.0%
	10Bet	2.00	50.0%	44.3%	-5.7%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.3%	1.70	58.8%	55.7%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	1.66	60.2%	55.7%	-4.5%
	10Bet	1.65	60.6%	55.7%	-4.9%
	Betfair	1.65	60.6%	55.7%	-4.9%
	BetVictor	1.65	60.6%	55.7%	-4.9%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +0.7%	2.15	46.5%	43.0%	-3.5%
	Betfair	2.15	46.5%	43.0%	-3.5%
	BetVictor	2.15	46.5%	43.0%	-3.5%
	Marathonbet	2.09	47.8%	43.0%	-4.8%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +2.8%	1.67	59.9%	57.0%	-2.9%
	BetVictor	1.62	61.7%	57.0%	-4.7%
	Marathonbet	1.61	62.1%	57.0%	-5.1%
	William Hill	1.60	62.5%	57.0%	-5.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +4.3%	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	10Bet	1.95	51.3%	0.0%	-51.3%
	BetVictor	1.95	51.3%	0.0%	-51.3%
	William Hill	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	Marathonbet	1.87	53.5%	0.0%	-53.5%
	Bet365	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +4.5%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	William Hill	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	BetVictor	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	10Bet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.3%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	BetVictor	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	10Bet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Bet365	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%

Model reasoning

Olmaliq at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Dinamo Samarqand, with 8 wins versus 6, and they’ve scored 27 goals while conceding 24. Their recent form is also more favorable, showing more wins than Dinamo’s, which supports the lean toward a home result. The draw is still a meaningful possibility, but the home win edge is reflected in the probabilities: 53.3% for Olmaliq versus 24.1% for a draw and 22.6% for Dinamo. Dinamo’s away record is not dominant, and they’ve conceded more than they’ve kept clean, which reduces their upside. On goals, the match profile leans toward a higher-scoring game. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 55.7%, and both teams to score is 57.0%, aligning with the fact that both sides have similar goal totals (27 scored each) despite different defensive records. With these signals, a home win is the most likely outcome, but it’s not overwhelming given the sizable draw probability and the moderate away scoring likelihood.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 19 Aug 2026 10:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.