Pre-match

High risk

Dinamo Kirov vs Amkar

Tue, Aug 25, 02:00 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 45/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Dinamo Kirov (L) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.2 for Amkar (L). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 45/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

45/100

Confidence

45/100

Strongest cover

79.5% probability

Risk classification

High

26.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

2 sources

20 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

DK win53.4%

Draw26.1%

A win20.5%

Goals

Over 1.576.6%

Over 2.550.1%

Under 2.549.9%

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%

No47.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Dinamo Kirov

0/3 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Amkar

0/3 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/4 and Over 2.5 in 1/4.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 25, 12:34 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Amkar 0-2 Dinamo Kirov

2026-05-16T13:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Dinamo Kirov 1-4 Amkar

2026-03-28T12:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Dinamo Kirov 1-1 Amkar

2024-09-14T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Amkar 0-0 Dinamo Kirov

2024-06-08T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +0.8%	4.32	23.1%	20.5%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	4.25	23.5%	20.5%	-3.0%
Draw 1X2	MarathonbetBest price	3.38	29.6%	26.1%	-3.5%
	1xBet	3.38	29.6%	26.1%	-3.5%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +0.6%	1.75	57.1%	53.4%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	1.73	57.8%	53.4%	-4.4%
Over 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price	1.85	54.1%	50.1%	-4.0%
	1xBet	1.85	54.1%	50.1%	-4.0%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price	1.85	54.1%	49.9%	-4.2%
	1xBet	1.85	54.1%	49.9%	-4.2%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +0.8%	1.94	51.5%	47.6%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	1.91	52.4%	47.6%	-4.8%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.76	56.8%	52.4%	-4.4%
	1xBet	1.76	56.8%	52.4%	-4.4%
Draw or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.89	52.9%	0.0%	-52.9%
	1xBet	1.89	52.9%	0.0%	-52.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.23	81.3%	0.0%	-81.3%
	1xBet	1.23	81.3%	0.0%	-81.3%
Home or Draw Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	1xBet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%

Model reasoning

Dinamo Kirov and Amkar have identical cup-season starts so far, each playing one match and losing it, with the same goal line of 1 scored and 2 conceded. That makes the matchup fairly balanced on the limited evidence available, and it keeps the confidence relatively low. The home side is still given a slight edge in the probabilities, with Dinamo Kirov at 53.4% for a home win versus 20.5% for an away win and 26.1% for a draw. The draw share is sizable, so a stalemate is a realistic alternative outcome. For goals, the model leans toward a game with at least three total goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50.1%. Both teams to score is also slightly favored at 52.4%, aligning with the early pattern of both sides conceding in their only matches. Overall, a home win is the lean, but the high risk level fits the small sample size and the close goal profile, so the result could easily swing toward a draw or a low-margin away result.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:01 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Dinamo Kirov predictions · Amkar predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.