Pre-match

Low risk

Tartu Kalev vs Tallinna Kalev II

Tue, Aug 25, 03:00 PM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 78/100

Model verdict

Low risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Tartu Kalev (WWWWW) project at 2.9 expected goals versus 1.5 for Tallinna Kalev II (LLWDD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 78/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

78/100

Confidence

78/100

Strongest cover

84.3% probability

Risk classification

Low

15.7% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

45 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

TK win68.3%

Draw15.7%

TKI win16%

Goals

Over 1.593.4%

Over 2.581.9%

Under 2.518.1%

Both teams to score

Yes74.3%

No25.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Tartu Kalev

15/15 recent form points

WWWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.67
Shots on target: Unavailable

Tallinna Kalev II

5/15 recent form points

LLWDD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.04
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/4 and Over 2.5 in 4/4.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 25, 12:21 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Tallinna Kalev II 7-2 Tartu Kalev

2026-06-01T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tartu Kalev 1-3 Tallinna Kalev II

2026-04-24T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tartu Kalev 2-2 Tallinna Kalev II

2024-02-18T17:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tartu Kalev 4-2 Tallinna Kalev II

2024-01-20T13:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	BetfairBest price +13.2%	6.00	16.7%	16.0%	-0.7%
	Dafabet	6.00	16.7%	16.0%	-0.7%
	Superbet	5.65	17.7%	16.0%	-1.7%
	1xBet	5.50	18.2%	16.0%	-2.2%
	Bet365	4.75	21.1%	16.0%	-5.1%
	Unibet	3.90	25.6%	16.0%	-9.6%
Draw 1X2	1xBetBest price +5.5%	5.60	17.9%	15.7%	-2.2%
	Bet365	5.50	18.2%	15.7%	-2.5%
	Betfair	5.50	18.2%	15.7%	-2.5%
	Dafabet	5.40	18.5%	15.7%	-2.8%
	Superbet	5.25	19.0%	15.7%	-3.3%
	Unibet	4.60	21.7%	15.7%	-6.0%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +13.0%	1.56	64.1%	68.3%	+4.2%
	Bet365	1.38	72.5%	68.3%	-4.2%
	1xBet	1.37	73.0%	68.3%	-4.7%
	Dafabet	1.34	74.6%	68.3%	-6.3%
	Superbet	1.33	75.2%	68.3%	-6.9%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	68.3%	-8.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +7.1%	5.50	18.2%	18.1%	-0.1%
	Bet365	5.00	20.0%	18.1%	-1.9%
	1xBet	4.90	20.4%	18.1%	-2.3%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +0.9%	1.14	87.7%	81.9%	-5.8%
	1xBet	1.14	87.7%	81.9%	-5.8%
	Betfair	1.11	90.1%	81.9%	-8.2%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +3.6%	3.77	26.5%	25.7%	-0.8%
	Betfair	3.60	27.8%	25.7%	-2.1%
	Superbet	3.55	28.2%	25.7%	-2.5%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price	1.25	80.0%	74.3%	-5.7%
	1xBet	1.25	80.0%	74.3%	-5.7%
	Superbet	1.25	80.0%	74.3%	-5.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +17.3%	3.20	31.3%	0.0%	-31.3%
	1xBet	2.90	34.5%	0.0%	-34.5%
	Bet365	2.75	36.4%	0.0%	-36.4%
	Superbet	2.72	36.8%	0.0%	-36.8%
	Unibet	2.07	48.3%	0.0%	-48.3%
Home or Draw Double Chance	UnibetBest price +4.1%	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	1xBet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Betfair	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	Superbet	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	UnibetBest price +1.3%	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Betfair	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	1xBet	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	Bet365	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	Superbet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%

Model reasoning

Tartu Kalev at home have been scoring consistently, with 64 goals in 24 matches and 8 clean sheets, which suggests they can create chances and also control games when they get ahead. Their very strong recent form (WWWWW) supports the idea that they are in a good scoring rhythm right now. Tallinna Kalev II’s away record is weaker, with 15 losses in 24 matches and 61 goals conceded, plus zero clean sheets. Their recent form (LLWDD) also points to inconsistency, which increases the likelihood that Tartu can find goals even if the match is not one-sided. With Tartu’s scoring output and Tallinna II’s defensive struggles, the matchup profile aligns with a higher chance of at least three total goals. The provided probabilities reflect this, with over 2.5 goals at 81.9% and both teams to score at 74.3%, indicating a game state where Tartu likely scores multiple times and Tallinna II still has a meaningful chance to contribute. Overall, the low risk label fits the strength of the goal indicators from the season totals and recent form, though the away team’s ability to score is not guaranteed, so the prediction is best viewed as favorable rather than certain.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 25 Aug 2026 01:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Tartu Kalev predictions · Tallinna Kalev II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.