Pre-match

High risk

CSKA Sofia II vs Ludogorets II

Tue, Aug 25, 03:00 PMStadion Dragalevtsi

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 58/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

CSKA Sofia II (WDLWW) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1 for Ludogorets II (DWWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 58/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

58/100

Confidence

58/100

Strongest cover

85.4% probability

Risk classification

High

21.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

56 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

CSI win64%

Draw21.4%

LI win14.6%

Goals

Over 1.577.1%

Over 2.552.8%

Under 2.547.2%

Both teams to score

Yes50.5%

No49.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

CSKA Sofia II

10/15 recent form points

WDLWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.78
Shots on target: Unavailable

Ludogorets II

10/15 recent form points

DWWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.28
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/6 and Over 2.5 in 2/6.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 25, 12:40 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

CSKA Sofia II 0-0 Ludogorets II

2025-12-07T13:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Ludogorets II 4-1 CSKA Sofia II

2025-08-03T19:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Ludogorets II 0-0 CSKA Sofia II

2025-03-22T14:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

CSKA Sofia II 1-1 Ludogorets II

2024-10-13T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

CSKA Sofia II 0-2 Ludogorets II

2017-05-21T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Ludogorets II 3-2 CSKA Sofia II

2016-11-28T16:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	Bet365Best price +8.5%	6.25	16.0%	14.6%	-1.4%
	Betfair	6.00	16.7%	14.6%	-2.1%
	Betano	5.90	16.9%	14.6%	-2.3%
	1xBet	5.82	17.2%	14.6%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	5.60	17.9%	14.6%	-3.3%
	Unibet	5.00	20.0%	14.6%	-5.4%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +5.0%	4.20	23.8%	21.4%	-2.4%
	Bet365	4.00	25.0%	21.4%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	4.00	25.0%	21.4%	-3.6%
	1xBet	4.00	25.0%	21.4%	-3.6%
	Betano	4.00	25.0%	21.4%	-3.6%
	Unibet	3.80	26.3%	21.4%	-4.9%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +2.3%	1.48	67.6%	64.0%	-3.6%
	1xBet	1.47	68.0%	64.0%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	1.46	68.5%	64.0%	-4.5%
	Betano	1.45	69.0%	64.0%	-5.0%
	Bet365	1.42	70.4%	64.0%	-6.4%
	Betfair	1.40	71.4%	64.0%	-7.4%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.5%	2.00	50.0%	47.2%	-2.8%
	Marathonbet	1.96	51.0%	47.2%	-3.8%
	Unibet	1.95	51.3%	47.2%	-4.1%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	47.2%	-4.1%
	1xBet	1.94	51.5%	47.2%	-4.3%
	Betano	1.91	52.4%	47.2%	-5.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.4%	1.80	55.6%	52.8%	-2.8%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	52.8%	-4.3%
	1xBet	1.75	57.1%	52.8%	-4.3%
	Marathonbet	1.74	57.5%	52.8%	-4.7%
	Betano	1.72	58.1%	52.8%	-5.3%
	Unibet	1.68	59.5%	52.8%	-6.7%
No BTTS	UnibetBest price +1.1%	1.86	53.8%	49.5%	-4.3%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	49.5%	-4.6%
	1xBet	1.84	54.3%	49.5%	-4.8%
	Marathonbet	1.81	55.2%	49.5%	-5.7%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.9%	1.85	54.1%	50.5%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	1.83	54.6%	50.5%	-4.1%
	1xBet	1.83	54.6%	50.5%	-4.1%
	Unibet	1.75	57.1%	50.5%	-6.6%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +11.3%	2.70	37.0%	0.0%	-37.0%
	Bet365	2.60	38.5%	0.0%	-38.5%
	Betano	2.40	41.7%	0.0%	-41.7%
	Marathonbet	2.35	42.6%	0.0%	-42.6%
	1xBet	2.35	42.6%	0.0%	-42.6%
	Unibet	2.16	46.3%	0.0%	-46.3%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +2.3%	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Betano	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	Unibet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	1xBet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetanoBest price +2.1%	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	Betfair	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	Unibet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
	Bet365	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%
	Marathonbet	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%
	1xBet	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%

Model reasoning

CSKA Sofia II at home have a stronger overall record than Ludogorets II on the road, with CSKA Sofia II going 16W 7D 9L versus Ludogorets II’s 11W 8D 13L. CSKA Sofia II also have the better goal profile, scoring 57 and conceding 32 compared with Ludogorets II’s 41 scored and 43 conceded, which supports a home edge. The recent form leans slightly toward CSKA Sofia II, with their sequence WDLWW compared to Ludogorets II’s DWWLW. While Ludogorets II have shown some ability to avoid defeat, their lower clean sheet count (6 vs 12) suggests they may be more vulnerable when facing a home side that can control games. The market-style probabilities align with this: home win is 64.0% versus draw 21.4% and away win 14.6%. Over 2.5 goals is only slightly more likely than not at 52.8%, and both teams to score is close to even at 50.5%, so a home win looks plausible without being a clear high-margin outcome. Given the relatively modest goal and scoring balance, the confidence is moderate (58) and the risk is high, meaning the result could swing if Ludogorets II manage to keep the match tight or if CSKA Sofia II fail to convert their chances.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 25 Aug 2026 01:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: CSKA Sofia II predictions · Ludogorets II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.