Pre-match

High risk

Namungo vs Fountain Gate

Tue, Aug 25, 03:00 PMMajaliwa Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 57/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Namungo (DDWDW) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 0.9 for Fountain Gate (LLLDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 57/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

57/100

Confidence

57/100

Strongest cover

81.1% probability

Risk classification

High

27.3% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

N win53.8%

Draw27.3%

FG win18.9%

Goals

Over 1.566.5%

Over 2.539.7%

Under 2.560.3%

Both teams to score

Yes43%

No57%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Namungo

9/15 recent form points

DDWDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.83
Shots on target: Unavailable

Fountain Gate

4/15 recent form points

LLLDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.83
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/8 and Over 2.5 in 3/8.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 25, 04:51 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Namungo 0-0 Fountain Gate

2026-06-27T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Fountain Gate 1-1 Namungo

2026-02-04T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Fountain Gate 1-2 Namungo

2024-12-25T12:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Namungo 0-2 Fountain Gate

2024-08-29T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Fountain Gate 1-0 Namungo

2024-03-16T14:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Namungo 2-3 Fountain Gate

2023-10-21T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Namungo 1-1 Fountain Gate

2023-06-09T14:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Fountain Gate 3-0 Namungo

2022-12-02T14:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	BetfairBest price +4.6%	4.75	21.1%	18.9%	-2.2%
	1xBet	4.74	21.1%	18.9%	-2.2%
	Marathonbet	4.65	21.5%	18.9%	-2.6%
	10Bet	4.60	21.7%	18.9%	-2.8%
	Bet365	4.50	22.2%	18.9%	-3.3%
	Unibet	4.00	25.0%	18.9%	-6.1%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +2.4%	3.30	30.3%	27.3%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	3.24	30.9%	27.3%	-3.6%
	1xBet	3.24	30.9%	27.3%	-3.6%
	10Bet	3.20	31.3%	27.3%	-3.9%
	Bet365	3.20	31.3%	27.3%	-3.9%
	Unibet	3.15	31.7%	27.3%	-4.4%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +3.7%	1.78	56.2%	53.8%	-2.4%
	Bet365	1.73	57.8%	53.8%	-4.0%
	1xBet	1.72	58.1%	53.8%	-4.3%
	10Bet	1.70	58.8%	53.8%	-5.0%
	Marathonbet	1.70	58.8%	53.8%	-5.0%
	Betfair	1.67	59.9%	53.8%	-6.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +4.0%	2.40	41.7%	39.7%	-2.0%
	Bet365	2.38	42.0%	39.7%	-2.3%
	Marathonbet	2.31	43.3%	39.7%	-3.6%
	1xBet	2.31	43.3%	39.7%	-3.6%
	10Bet	2.25	44.4%	39.7%	-4.7%
	Unibet	2.20	45.5%	39.7%	-5.8%
Under 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +1.2%	1.54	64.9%	60.3%	-4.6%
	Bet365	1.53	65.4%	60.3%	-5.1%
	Marathonbet	1.53	65.4%	60.3%	-5.1%
	1xBet	1.53	65.4%	60.3%	-5.1%
	10Bet	1.50	66.7%	60.3%	-6.4%
	Betfair	1.50	66.7%	60.3%	-6.4%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +2.8%	2.20	45.5%	43.0%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	2.11	47.4%	43.0%	-4.4%
	1xBet	2.11	47.4%	43.0%	-4.4%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +0.8%	1.62	61.7%	57.0%	-4.7%
	Marathonbet	1.60	62.5%	57.0%	-5.5%
	Betfair	1.60	62.5%	57.0%	-5.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +4.3%	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Bet365	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	Marathonbet	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	1xBet	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	Unibet	1.78	56.2%	0.0%	-56.2%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +2.8%	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Marathonbet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	1xBet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Unibet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	10Bet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	UnibetBest price +2.1%	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Betfair	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Marathonbet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	1xBet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	10Bet	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%

Model reasoning

Namungo at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Fountain Gate away, with 7 wins and 13 draws versus Fountain Gate’s 9 wins but more losses on the road (15). Namungo also has a better goal profile at this stage, scoring 25 and conceding 32, while Fountain Gate scores 25 but concedes 44, suggesting Namungo may create more chances and be less vulnerable defensively. The recent form leans modestly toward Namungo, with “DDWDW” compared to Fountain Gate’s “LLLDW”. That pattern indicates Fountain Gate has struggled more consistently in their latest matches, even though both teams have similar season goal totals. The match also looks fairly open rather than one-sided. Both teams to score is estimated at 43.0%, and over 2.5 goals at 39.7%, so a low-scoring or one-team-dominant script isn’t strongly supported by these stats. With home win probability at 53.8% and a high risk level, the home edge is present but not dominant. The draw remains a meaningful alternative at 27.3%, so the prediction is more of a lean than a confident call.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 25 Aug 2026 02:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.