Pre-match

High risk

Al Karkh vs Erbil

Tue, Aug 25, 03:30 PM

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 54/100

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Al Karkh (WDWLD) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.2 for Erbil (WLWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 54/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

54/100

Confidence

54/100

Strongest cover

75.9% probability

Risk classification

High

29.3% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

49 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AK win24.1%

Draw29.3%

E win46.6%

Goals

Over 1.569.7%

Over 2.542.8%

Under 2.557.2%

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%

No51.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Al Karkh

8/15 recent form points

WDWLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.34
Shots on target: Unavailable

Erbil

12/15 recent form points

WLWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.58
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 25, 09:01 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Erbil 1-0 Al Karkh

2026-05-02T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Karkh 1-1 Erbil

2026-01-27T13:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Erbil 1-3 Al Karkh

2025-06-29T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Karkh 2-4 Erbil

2025-01-19T12:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Karkh 0-0 Erbil

2024-05-08T14:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Erbil 0-0 Al Karkh

2024-03-28T19:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Erbil 0-0 Al Karkh

2023-06-25T20:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Karkh 3-1 Erbil

2023-02-01T12:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Erbil 2-1 Al Karkh

2022-07-03T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Karkh 0-0 Erbil

2022-01-15T12:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	10BetBest price +2.6%	3.75	26.7%	24.1%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	3.74	26.7%	24.1%	-2.6%
	Unibet	3.70	27.0%	24.1%	-2.9%
	Pinnacle	3.65	27.4%	24.1%	-3.3%
	William Hill	3.60	27.8%	24.1%	-3.7%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	24.1%	-4.5%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +3.0%	3.10	32.3%	29.3%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	3.05	32.8%	29.3%	-3.5%
	Pinnacle	3.05	32.8%	29.3%	-3.5%
	Unibet	3.00	33.3%	29.3%	-4.0%
	10Bet	2.95	33.9%	29.3%	-4.6%
	William Hill	2.90	34.5%	29.3%	-5.2%
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +0.9%	1.96	51.0%	46.6%	-4.4%
	10Bet	1.95	51.3%	46.6%	-4.7%
	William Hill	1.95	51.3%	46.6%	-4.7%
	Bet365	1.95	51.3%	46.6%	-4.7%
	Marathonbet	1.93	51.8%	46.6%	-5.2%
	Pinnacle	1.91	52.4%	46.6%	-5.8%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.6%	2.20	45.5%	42.8%	-2.7%
	Pinnacle	2.18	45.9%	42.8%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	2.17	46.1%	42.8%	-3.3%
	Unibet	2.12	47.2%	42.8%	-4.4%
	10Bet	2.05	48.8%	42.8%	-6.0%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.0%	1.65	60.6%	57.2%	-3.4%
	10Bet	1.60	62.5%	57.2%	-5.3%
	Marathonbet	1.60	62.5%	57.2%	-5.3%
	Pinnacle	1.59	62.9%	57.2%	-5.7%
	Unibet	1.57	63.7%	57.2%	-6.5%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +2.0%	1.91	52.4%	48.3%	-4.1%
	Unibet	1.86	53.8%	48.3%	-5.5%
	William Hill	1.85	54.1%	48.3%	-5.8%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +0.4%	1.75	57.1%	51.7%	-5.4%
	Marathonbet	1.74	57.5%	51.7%	-5.8%
	Unibet	1.74	57.5%	51.7%	-5.8%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.6%	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Bet365	1.70	58.8%	0.0%	-58.8%
	Marathonbet	1.69	59.2%	0.0%	-59.2%
	10Bet	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	Unibet	1.64	61.0%	0.0%	-61.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.9%	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	10Bet	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Marathonbet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Unibet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +1.3%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	William Hill	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Unibet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%

Model reasoning

Erbil look more likely to win than Al Karkh based on season results, with Erbil’s record reading 23W 11D 4L versus Al Karkh’s 16W 12D 10L. Erbil also have a stronger defensive profile, conceding 30 goals compared with Al Karkh’s 41, and they’ve kept 15 clean sheets versus 9. For the goal line, the matchup leans toward fewer goals. Erbil’s low goals conceded supports the under 2.5 angle, and the overall probability for over 2.5 goals is 42.8%, which is below a coin-flip level. At the same time, both teams to score is relatively high at 48.3%, so a tight game with one team scoring is plausible, but a clean sheet for either side isn’t guaranteed. Recent form adds some caution. Al Karkh’s run is mixed (WDWLD), while Erbil’s is stronger (WLWWW), which fits the away edge but doesn’t eliminate the chance of a late goal swing that could push the total above 2.5. With confidence at 54 and risk marked high, the under 2.5 Goals call looks like a slight lean rather than a strong conviction, mainly driven by Erbil’s defensive record and the below-50% over 2.5 probability.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 25 Aug 2026 09:30 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Al Karkh predictions · Erbil predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.