Pre-match

Medium risk

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaisar

Tue, Aug 25, 02:00 PMCentralnyj Stadion

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 75/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

FK Tobol Kostanay (WDWLW) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 0.9 for Kaisar (DLDDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 75/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

75/100

Confidence

75/100

Strongest cover

82.3% probability

Risk classification

Medium

23.7% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

51 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

FTK win58.6%

Draw23.7%

K win17.7%

Goals

Over 1.568.8%

Over 2.551.7%

Under 2.548.3%

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%

No48.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

FK Tobol Kostanay

10/15 recent form points

WDWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.10
Shots on target: Unavailable

Kaisar

3/15 recent form points

DLDDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.76
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 25, 12:00 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Kaisar 2-1 FK Tobol Kostanay

2026-05-17T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Kaisar 1-1 FK Tobol Kostanay

2026-05-13T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

FK Tobol Kostanay 1-0 Kaisar

2025-09-28T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Kaisar 1-1 FK Tobol Kostanay

2025-06-15T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Kaisar 2-0 FK Tobol Kostanay

2024-11-10T10:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

FK Tobol Kostanay 1-2 Kaisar

2024-06-01T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Kaisar 0-3 FK Tobol Kostanay

2024-04-13T11:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

FK Tobol Kostanay 0-2 Kaisar

2023-08-06T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Kaisar 1-0 FK Tobol Kostanay

2023-05-14T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Kaisar 1-3 FK Tobol Kostanay

2021-06-23T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +8.1%	5.27	19.0%	17.7%	-1.3%
	Marathonbet	5.05	19.8%	17.7%	-2.1%
	Betfair	5.00	20.0%	17.7%	-2.3%
	William Hill	4.80	20.8%	17.7%	-3.1%
	Pinnacle	4.62	21.6%	17.7%	-3.9%
	Bet365	4.50	22.2%	17.7%	-4.5%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +5.0%	3.90	25.6%	23.7%	-1.9%
	1xBet	3.84	26.0%	23.7%	-2.3%
	Pinnacle	3.76	26.6%	23.7%	-2.9%
	Marathonbet	3.68	27.2%	23.7%	-3.5%
	Bet365	3.60	27.8%	23.7%	-4.1%
	William Hill	3.50	28.6%	23.7%	-4.9%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +2.1%	1.63	61.3%	58.6%	-2.7%
	William Hill	1.62	61.7%	58.6%	-3.1%
	Bet365	1.62	61.7%	58.6%	-3.1%
	Pinnacle	1.60	62.5%	58.6%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	1.56	64.1%	58.6%	-5.5%
	Betfair	1.55	64.5%	58.6%	-5.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.1%	2.00	50.0%	48.3%	-1.7%
	1xBet	1.96	51.0%	48.3%	-2.7%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	48.3%	-3.0%
	Pinnacle	1.95	51.3%	48.3%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	1.93	51.8%	48.3%	-3.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +1.1%	1.81	55.2%	51.7%	-3.5%
	1xBet	1.81	55.2%	51.7%	-3.5%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	51.7%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	1.78	56.2%	51.7%	-4.5%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	51.7%	-5.4%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +1.7%	1.95	51.3%	48.4%	-2.9%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	48.4%	-2.9%
	1xBet	1.90	52.6%	48.4%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	1.87	53.5%	48.4%	-5.1%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.0%	1.80	55.6%	51.6%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	1.79	55.9%	51.6%	-4.3%
	1xBet	1.79	55.9%	51.6%	-4.3%
	William Hill	1.75	57.1%	51.6%	-5.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +1.6%	2.20	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5%
	1xBet	2.19	45.7%	0.0%	-45.7%
	Marathonbet	2.14	46.7%	0.0%	-46.7%
	Bet365	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.5%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	1xBet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Marathonbet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.0%	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	1xBet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Betfair	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Marathonbet	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%

Model reasoning

Tobol Kostanay at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Kaisar, with 7 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses from 21 matches, compared with Kaisar’s 3 wins, 11 draws, and 7 losses on the road. Tobol also has a better goal difference profile at this point, scoring 23 and conceding 28, while Kaisar scores 16 and concedes 24. In recent form, Tobol’s sequence is WDWLW, showing more positive results than Kaisar’s DLDDL, which includes only one win across the last five matches. That recent contrast supports the idea that Tobol can edge the matchup rather than it turning into a stalemate. The market-style outputs are fairly balanced, but they lean toward Tobol. Home win is estimated at 58.6% versus 23.7% for a draw and 17.7% for an away win, aligning with Tobol’s home advantage and slightly better form. For goals, over 2.5 is at 51.7% and both teams to score is 51.6%, suggesting a close game where scoring is plausible on both sides, but not guaranteed. With that mix, a home win looks reasonable, though the moderate confidence and near-even goal indicators keep the risk at a medium level.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:06 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

More predictions

All Premier League predictions →

Team hubs: FK Tobol Kostanay predictions · Kaisar predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.