Pre-match

Medium risk

Tacoma Defiance vs Sporting KC II

Tue, Aug 25, 02:00 AMStarfire Sports

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 76/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Tacoma Defiance (WWWLL) project at 2.2 expected goals versus 1.2 for Sporting KC II (WWLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 76/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

76/100

Confidence

76/100

Strongest cover

78.1% probability

Risk classification

Medium

21.9% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

46 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

TD win55.2%

Draw21.9%

SKI win22.9%

Goals

Over 1.586.1%

Over 2.566.4%

Under 2.533.6%

Both teams to score

Yes64.9%

No35.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Tacoma Defiance

9/15 recent form points

WWWLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.52
Shots on target: Unavailable

Sporting KC II

6/15 recent form points

WWLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.35
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/7 and Over 2.5 in 6/7.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 24, 08:17 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Sporting KC II 2-2 Tacoma Defiance

2026-05-04T02:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sporting KC II 1-4 Tacoma Defiance

2025-04-24T01:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tacoma Defiance 4-3 Sporting KC II

2024-07-08T04:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tacoma Defiance 3-1 Sporting KC II

2023-08-10T04:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sporting KC II 2-2 Tacoma Defiance

2023-06-16T02:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tacoma Defiance 1-0 Sporting KC II

2022-08-21T04:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Sporting KC II 0-3 Tacoma Defiance

2022-07-23T02:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +2.2%	4.00	25.0%	21.9%	-3.1%
	Unibet	4.00	25.0%	21.9%	-3.1%
	Betfair	4.00	25.0%	21.9%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	3.98	25.1%	21.9%	-3.2%
	10Bet	3.90	25.6%	21.9%	-3.7%
	William Hill	3.60	27.8%	21.9%	-5.9%
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +7.1%	4.00	25.0%	22.9%	-2.1%
	Betfair	3.80	26.3%	22.9%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	3.75	26.7%	22.9%	-3.8%
	William Hill	3.70	27.0%	22.9%	-4.1%
	Bet365	3.60	27.8%	22.9%	-4.9%
	10Bet	3.55	28.2%	22.9%	-5.3%
Home 1X2	10BetBest price +2.6%	1.73	57.8%	55.2%	-2.6%
	William Hill	1.73	57.8%	55.2%	-2.6%
	Bet365	1.70	58.8%	55.2%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	1.68	59.5%	55.2%	-4.3%
	Betfair	1.67	59.9%	55.2%	-4.7%
	Unibet	1.61	62.1%	55.2%	-6.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +6.4%	2.90	34.5%	33.6%	-0.9%
	Marathonbet	2.66	37.6%	33.6%	-4.0%
	Bet365	2.62	38.2%	33.6%	-4.6%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +4.6%	1.44	69.4%	66.4%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	1.37	73.0%	66.4%	-6.6%
	Unibet	1.32	75.8%	66.4%	-9.4%
No BTTS	William HillBest price	2.60	38.5%	35.1%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	2.60	38.5%	35.1%	-3.4%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price	1.40	71.4%	64.9%	-6.5%
	Marathonbet	1.40	71.4%	64.9%	-6.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +1.9%	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Unibet	1.98	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5%
	Bet365	1.95	51.3%	0.0%	-51.3%
	Marathonbet	1.94	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5%
	William Hill	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.3%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	10Bet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Bet365	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Marathonbet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	Unibet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +1.8%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	10Bet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Marathonbet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Unibet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%

Model reasoning

Tacoma Defiance at home have scored 35 goals in 23 matches and conceded 38, with only 5 clean sheets. Their recent form is WWWLL, suggesting they can produce goals but also have some vulnerability. Sporting KC II away have scored 31 goals in 23 matches while conceding 60, and they’ve kept just 1 clean sheet. Their recent form is WWLLL, which points to a tendency to struggle defensively and to concede more often than they prevent goals. With Tacoma’s home scoring rate and Sporting KC II’s high away concession rate, the matchup profile supports goals. The probabilities provided also align with this, with over 2.5 goals at 66.4% and both teams to score at 64.9%. A home win is more likely than an away win (55.2% vs 22.9%), but the draw is still meaningful (21.9%), so the main edge is in the goal market rather than a single result.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:03 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Tacoma Defiance predictions · Sporting KC II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.