Pre-match

High risk

Guadalupe FC vs AD Carmelita

Tue, Aug 25, 01:00 AMEstadio Coyella Fonseca

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 52/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Guadalupe FC (WDL) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.1 for AD Carmelita (LWLDD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 52/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

52/100

Confidence

52/100

Strongest cover

81.0% probability

Risk classification

High

23.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

GF win57.9%

Draw23.1%

AC win19%

Goals

Over 1.572.5%

Over 2.556.1%

Under 2.543.9%

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%

No44.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Guadalupe FC

4/9 recent form points

WDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.33
Shots on target: Unavailable

AD Carmelita

5/15 recent form points

LWLDD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.93
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 24, 08:56 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Guadalupe FC 1-1 AD Carmelita

2019-03-27T22:05:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

AD Carmelita 4-1 Guadalupe FC

2019-02-03T20:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Guadalupe FC 2-1 AD Carmelita

2018-11-04T22:05:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

AD Carmelita 3-0 Guadalupe FC

2018-09-09T22:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Guadalupe FC 2-0 AD Carmelita

2018-03-24T22:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

AD Carmelita 1-4 Guadalupe FC

2018-01-27T21:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Guadalupe FC 1-1 AD Carmelita

2017-11-01T22:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

AD Carmelita 3-1 Guadalupe FC

2017-09-02T22:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

AD Carmelita 0-0 Guadalupe FC

2017-03-10T02:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Guadalupe FC 1-3 AD Carmelita

2017-01-21T23:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +25.6%	5.80	17.2%	19.0%	+1.8%
	Betfair	4.60	21.7%	19.0%	-2.7%
	10Bet	4.40	22.7%	19.0%	-3.7%
	William Hill	4.40	22.7%	19.0%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	4.40	22.7%	19.0%	-3.7%
	Bet365	4.10	24.4%	19.0%	-5.4%
Draw 1X2	UnibetBest price +10.9%	4.20	23.8%	23.1%	-0.7%
	Betfair	3.90	25.6%	23.1%	-2.5%
	Bet365	3.80	26.3%	23.1%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	3.68	27.2%	23.1%	-4.1%
	10Bet	3.65	27.4%	23.1%	-4.3%
	William Hill	3.50	28.6%	23.1%	-5.5%
Home 1X2	William HillBest price +5.0%	1.67	59.9%	57.9%	-2.0%
	Bet365	1.65	60.6%	57.9%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	1.63	61.3%	57.9%	-3.4%
	10Bet	1.62	61.7%	57.9%	-3.8%
	Betfair	1.60	62.5%	57.9%	-4.6%
	Unibet	1.37	73.0%	57.9%	-15.1%
Under 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +7.2%	2.28	43.9%	43.9%	+0.0%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	43.9%	-1.6%
	Bet365	2.08	48.1%	43.9%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	2.07	48.3%	43.9%	-4.4%
	10Bet	2.00	50.0%	43.9%	-6.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +6.3%	1.73	57.8%	56.1%	-1.7%
	Marathonbet	1.66	60.2%	56.1%	-4.1%
	10Bet	1.65	60.6%	56.1%	-4.5%
	Betfair	1.60	62.5%	56.1%	-6.4%
	Unibet	1.50	66.7%	56.1%	-10.6%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +6.2%	2.20	45.5%	44.8%	-0.7%
	William Hill	2.05	48.8%	44.8%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	2.04	49.0%	44.8%	-4.2%
	Unibet	2.00	50.0%	44.8%	-5.2%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +2.1%	1.70	58.8%	55.2%	-3.6%
	Unibet	1.70	58.8%	55.2%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	1.64	61.0%	55.2%	-5.8%
	Betfair	1.62	61.7%	55.2%	-6.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	UnibetBest price +13.1%	2.43	41.2%	0.0%	-41.2%
	10Bet	2.15	46.5%	0.0%	-46.5%
	William Hill	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	Bet365	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	Betfair	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	Marathonbet	2.01	49.8%	0.0%	-49.8%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.2%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Marathonbet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
	10Bet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Bet365	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Unibet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.2%	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Marathonbet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	10Bet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Unibet	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%

Model reasoning

Guadalupe FC at home has a balanced start in this small sample, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 4 and conceding 5 across 3 matches. AD Carmelita’s away record is weaker overall, with 6 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses, and they’ve scored 27 while conceding 35 in 29 matches, which supports the idea that Guadalupe FC has the edge at home. The most likely match outcome leans toward a home win, with probabilities showing 57.9% for Guadalupe FC versus 19.0% for AD Carmelita, while a draw remains plausible at 23.1%. The risk is elevated because the away side has enough draws in their overall record to keep the result from being one-sided. Goal expectations also point toward a relatively open game. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 56.1%, and both teams to score is 55.2%, aligning with Guadalupe FC having conceded in all of their home matches so far (0 clean sheets) and AD Carmelita’s goal totals suggesting they can contribute even if they struggle to win. Overall, a Guadalupe FC home win fits the probabilities, but with a high risk level and a meaningful draw chance, it’s better viewed as a slight-to-moderate lean rather than a confident call.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:05 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Guadalupe FC predictions · AD Carmelita predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.