III Liga - Group 3
Finished
Medium risk

ROW Rybnik vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

41Full time
Sun, Aug 16, 04:00 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 63/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

Home Win

ROW Rybnik (WLWW) project at 2 expected goals versus 1 for Zaglebie Sosnowiec (DWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 63/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

63/100

Confidence
63/100

Strongest cover

1X

84.5% probability

Risk classification

Medium

20.4% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

RR win64.1%
Draw20.4%
ZS win15.5%

Goals

Over 1.580.6%
Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

ROW Rybnik

9/12 recent form points

WLWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
3.25
Shots on target
Unavailable

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

7/12 recent form points

DWLW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.50
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

ROW Rybnik 4-1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2026-08-16T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

ROW Rybnik at home has been strong in this small sample, with 3 wins from 4 matches and a goal record of 13 scored versus 3 conceded. They also have 1 clean sheet, and their recent form (WLWW) suggests they’ve been able to control results more often than not. Zaglebie Sosnowiec away has been more mixed, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Their recent form (DWLW) includes a draw and a couple of wins, but their away scoring output is lower than ROW Rybnik’s home output, which keeps the matchup leaning toward the home side. The overall goal indicators point to a fairly open but not guaranteed scoring game: over 2.5 goals is favored at 57.5%, and both teams to score is slightly more likely than not at 55.9%. That aligns with ROW Rybnik’s ability to score while still allowing some chance for Sosnowiec to find goals. Putting it together, a home win is the most likely outcome (64.1%), with a medium risk level since Sosnowiec’s results include draws and wins and the goal profile suggests the match could produce goals for both sides.

Recorded forecast

Final score

4-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 50.1% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1531 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sun, 16 Aug 2026 15:30 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: ROW Rybnik predictions · Zaglebie Sosnowiec predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.