Super League
Pre-match
High risk

Bunyodkor vs Kokand-1912

Thu, Aug 20, 02:00 PMMilliy Stadium

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 63/100

Model verdict
High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Bunyodkor (LLLLL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.1 for Kokand-1912 (LLLDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 63/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

63/100

Confidence
63/100

Strongest cover

12

71.3% probability

Risk classification

High

28.7% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

51 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

B win34.1%
Draw28.7%
K win37.2%

Goals

Over 1.573.3%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%

Both teams to score

Yes51.2%
No48.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Bunyodkor

0/15 recent form points

LLLLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.19
Shots on target
Unavailable

Kokand-1912

4/15 recent form points

LLLDW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.88
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/9 and Over 2.5 in 4/9.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 19, 08:19 PM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Kokand-1912 1-0 Bunyodkor

2026-05-03T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Kokand-1912 2-2 Bunyodkor

2025-09-28T14:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Kokand-1912 1-1 Bunyodkor

2025-06-18T16:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Bunyodkor 1-2 Kokand-1912

2025-05-02T17:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Kokand-1912 0-1 Bunyodkor

2022-11-07T12:15:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Bunyodkor 1-1 Kokand-1912

2022-06-21T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Bunyodkor 2-1 Kokand-1912

2021-09-10T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Kokand-1912 0-0 Bunyodkor

2021-04-02T13:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Kokand-1912 2-1 Bunyodkor

2020-09-27T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Draw
1X2
Bet365Best price +2.9%3.2031.3%28.7%-2.6%
Pinnacle3.1531.7%28.7%-3.0%
BetVictor3.1331.9%28.7%-3.2%
Betfair3.1032.3%28.7%-3.6%
Marathonbet3.0832.5%28.7%-3.8%
William Hill3.0033.3%28.7%-4.6%
Home
1X2
PinnacleBest price +3.8%2.8035.7%34.1%-1.6%
BetVictor2.7536.4%34.1%-2.3%
Bet3652.7037.0%34.1%-2.9%
Marathonbet2.6937.2%34.1%-3.1%
Betfair2.6338.0%34.1%-3.9%
William Hill2.6238.2%34.1%-4.1%
Away
1X2
PinnacleBest price +2.5%2.4840.3%37.2%-3.1%
BetVictor2.4540.8%37.2%-3.6%
William Hill2.4041.7%37.2%-4.5%
Marathonbet2.4041.7%37.2%-4.5%
Betfair2.4041.7%37.2%-4.5%
Bet3652.3842.0%37.2%-4.8%
Over 2.5
Totals
PinnacleBest price +2.4%2.1346.9%45.0%-1.9%
Bet3652.1047.6%45.0%-2.6%
BetVictor2.1047.6%45.0%-2.6%
Marathonbet2.0748.3%45.0%-3.3%
Betfair2.0050.0%45.0%-5.0%
Under 2.5
Totals
BetfairBest price +2.4%1.7357.8%55.0%-2.8%
Bet3651.7058.8%55.0%-3.8%
Pinnacle1.6959.2%55.0%-4.2%
BetVictor1.6759.9%55.0%-4.9%
Marathonbet1.6660.2%55.0%-5.2%
No
BTTS
BetfairBest price +3.4%1.9551.3%48.8%-2.5%
BetVictor1.9052.6%48.8%-3.8%
William Hill1.8554.1%48.8%-5.3%
Marathonbet1.8454.3%48.8%-5.5%
Yes
BTTS
William HillBest price1.8055.6%51.2%-4.4%
Marathonbet1.8055.6%51.2%-4.4%
Betfair1.8055.6%51.2%-4.4%
BetVictor1.8055.6%51.2%-4.4%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
Bet365Best price +2.9%1.5066.7%0.0%-66.7%
BetVictor1.4768.0%0.0%-68.0%
William Hill1.4469.4%0.0%-69.4%
Marathonbet1.4469.4%0.0%-69.4%
Betfair1.4469.4%0.0%-69.4%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +1.2%1.4071.4%0.0%-71.4%
Betfair1.4071.4%0.0%-71.4%
BetVictor1.4071.4%0.0%-71.4%
Bet3651.3673.5%0.0%-73.5%
Marathonbet1.3673.5%0.0%-73.5%
Home or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +2.6%1.3375.2%0.0%-75.2%
Betfair1.3076.9%0.0%-76.9%
BetVictor1.3076.9%0.0%-76.9%
Bet3651.2878.1%0.0%-78.1%
Marathonbet1.2778.7%0.0%-78.7%

Model reasoning

Bunyodkor at home has scored 19 goals in 16 matches and conceded 23, with only 4 clean sheets. Their recent form is very poor, with five straight losses, which suggests they may struggle to create consistent scoring chances in this specific stretch. Kokand-1912 away has scored 15 goals in 17 matches and conceded 25, also with 4 clean sheets. Their recent form is mixed but still weak overall, with three losses in their last four matches, which points to limited attacking output and a tendency to keep games from turning into high-scoring affairs. With both teams’ season scoring rates relatively modest and defensive records that include some clean sheets, the matchup profile leans toward fewer goals. The probabilities provided support this, with 45.0% for over 2.5 goals and 51.2% for both teams to score, so a low-to-moderate scoring game is more likely than a clear goal-fest, though the “both teams to score” likelihood keeps the under from being especially safe. That combination aligns with an Under 2.5 Goals lean, but the high risk reflects the uncertainty created by Kokand-1912’s occasional ability to avoid defeat and the fact that both teams to score is slightly more likely than not.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:49 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Bunyodkor predictions · Kokand-1912 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.