Pre-match

Medium risk

FK Neftekhimik vs FC Sochi

Thu, Aug 20, 03:00 PMNeftekhimik Stadium

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 69/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

FK Neftekhimik (WLWLL) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.4 for FC Sochi (LWLWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 69/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

69/100

Confidence

69/100

Strongest cover

76.2% probability

Risk classification

Medium

27.0% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

46 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

FN win23.8%

Draw27%

FS win49.2%

Goals

Over 1.574%

Over 2.548.5%

Under 2.551.5%

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%

No48.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

FK Neftekhimik

6/15 recent form points

WLWLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

FC Sochi

9/15 recent form points

LWLWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.83
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/5 and Over 2.5 in 3/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 20, 04:33 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

FK Neftekhimik 1-1 FC Sochi

2025-05-10T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

FC Sochi 2-0 FK Neftekhimik

2025-02-08T09:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

FC Sochi 3-2 FK Neftekhimik

2024-11-03T15:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

PFC Sochi 3-0 FK Neftekhimik

2023-01-22T15:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

PFC Sochi 3-0 FK Neftekhimik

2023-01-22T15:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	PinnacleBest price +8.1%	4.13	24.2%	23.8%	-0.4%
	1xBet	4.04	24.8%	23.8%	-1.0%
	Marathonbet	3.92	25.5%	23.8%	-1.7%
	Dafabet	3.80	26.3%	23.8%	-2.5%
	Superbet	3.70	27.0%	23.8%	-3.2%
	SBO	3.33	30.0%	23.8%	-6.2%
Draw 1X2	1xBetBest price +5.0%	3.52	28.4%	27.0%	-1.4%
	Pinnacle	3.50	28.6%	27.0%	-1.6%
	Marathonbet	3.42	29.2%	27.0%	-2.2%
	Dafabet	3.35	29.9%	27.0%	-2.9%
	Superbet	3.30	30.3%	27.0%	-3.3%
	SBO	3.02	33.1%	27.0%	-6.1%
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +1.6%	1.94	51.5%	49.2%	-2.3%
	Pinnacle	1.93	51.8%	49.2%	-2.6%
	Dafabet	1.93	51.8%	49.2%	-2.6%
	Superbet	1.92	52.1%	49.2%	-2.9%
	Marathonbet	1.88	53.2%	49.2%	-4.0%
	SBO	1.86	53.8%	49.2%	-4.6%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +2.6%	2.00	50.0%	48.5%	-1.5%
	1xBet	1.98	50.5%	48.5%	-2.0%
	Marathonbet	1.95	51.3%	48.5%	-2.8%
	SBO	1.94	51.5%	48.5%	-3.0%
	Superbet	1.88	53.2%	48.5%	-4.7%
Under 2.5 Totals	SBOBest price +1.4%	1.86	53.8%	51.5%	-2.3%
	Pinnacle	1.84	54.3%	51.5%	-2.8%
	1xBet	1.84	54.3%	51.5%	-2.8%
	Superbet	1.82	54.9%	51.5%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	1.81	55.2%	51.5%	-3.7%
No BTTS	SuperbetBest price +1.6%	1.95	51.3%	48.1%	-3.2%
	1xBet	1.92	52.1%	48.1%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	1.89	52.9%	48.1%	-4.8%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +0.4%	1.79	55.9%	51.9%	-4.0%
	1xBet	1.79	55.9%	51.9%	-4.0%
	Superbet	1.77	56.5%	51.9%	-4.6%
Home or Draw Double Chance	SBOBest price +3.9%	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	1xBet	1.86	53.8%	0.0%	-53.8%
	Marathonbet	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	Superbet	1.75	57.1%	0.0%	-57.1%
Home or Away Double Chance	1xBetBest price +3.4%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Marathonbet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Superbet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	SBO	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	1xBetBest price +2.9%	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	Marathonbet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Superbet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	SBO	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%

Model reasoning

FC Sochi look slightly more likely to win away, with a 49.2% away-win probability versus 23.8% for Neftekhimik. Sochi’s overall record (3W 1D 2L) is stronger than Neftekhimik’s (2W 0D 4L), and Sochi have been more consistent in their recent form, including two wins in their last three matches (LWLWW). In goal terms, Sochi also have the edge. They’ve scored 11 goals in 6 matches compared with Neftekhimik’s 3, while conceding is relatively close (7 vs 10). Both teams have managed 2 clean sheets each, which keeps the match from looking one-sided, but Sochi’s attacking output is the main driver behind the away-win lean. The market signals a fairly balanced scoring profile: both teams to score is at 51.9%, and over 2.5 goals is at 48.5%. That suggests a competitive game where Sochi may edge it, but there’s enough chance for Neftekhimik to contribute offensively or for the match to stay tight. With a confidence score of 69 and a medium risk level, the away win is the best fit among the provided probabilities, though the draw probability (27.0%) and the near-even goal thresholds imply it’s not a lock.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 20 Aug 2026 03:01 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: FK Neftekhimik predictions · FC Sochi predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.