Pre-match

Medium risk

Rosenborg W vs Lyn W

Thu, Aug 20, 04:00 PMKoteng Arena

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 71/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Rosenborg W (WLDWW) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.1 for Lyn W (LWDLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 71/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

71/100

Confidence

71/100

Strongest cover

86.2% probability

Risk classification

Medium

18.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

48 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

RW win67.8%

Draw18.4%

LW win13.8%

Goals

Over 1.577.3%

Over 2.564.9%

Under 2.535.1%

Both teams to score

Yes57.6%

No42.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Rosenborg W

10/15 recent form points

WLDWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.77
Shots on target: Unavailable

Lyn W

4/15 recent form points

LWDLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.75
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 20, 08:03 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Lyn W 4-4 Rosenborg W

2026-06-13T13:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lyn W 0-2 Rosenborg W

2025-09-21T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Lyn W 1-1 Rosenborg W

2025-08-23T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Rosenborg W 3-0 Lyn W

2025-04-22T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Rosenborg W 0-2 Lyn W

2024-10-05T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Rosenborg W 0-1 Lyn W

2024-08-30T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Lyn W 0-1 Rosenborg W

2024-03-23T15:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Lyn W 0-2 Rosenborg W

2023-09-09T16:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Lyn W 2-0 Rosenborg W

2023-06-18T16:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Rosenborg W 3-0 Lyn W

2023-04-29T16:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	BetfairBest price +6.8%	6.50	15.4%	13.8%	-1.6%
	Marathonbet	6.40	15.6%	13.8%	-1.8%
	Bet365	6.25	16.0%	13.8%	-2.2%
	Unibet	6.10	16.4%	13.8%	-2.6%
	William Hill	6.00	16.7%	13.8%	-2.9%
	10Bet	5.25	19.0%	13.8%	-5.2%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +8.7%	5.00	20.0%	18.4%	-1.6%
	Marathonbet	4.85	20.6%	18.4%	-2.2%
	Unibet	4.60	21.7%	18.4%	-3.3%
	10Bet	4.50	22.2%	18.4%	-3.8%
	William Hill	4.33	23.1%	18.4%	-4.7%
	Bet365	4.33	23.1%	18.4%	-4.7%
Home 1X2	10BetBest price +3.6%	1.40	71.4%	67.8%	-3.6%
	Bet365	1.38	72.5%	67.8%	-4.7%
	William Hill	1.36	73.5%	67.8%	-5.7%
	Unibet	1.34	74.6%	67.8%	-6.8%
	Marathonbet	1.33	75.2%	67.8%	-7.4%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	67.8%	-9.1%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.9%	2.75	36.4%	35.1%	-1.3%
	Unibet	2.60	38.5%	35.1%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	2.59	38.6%	35.1%	-3.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +0.7%	1.40	71.4%	64.9%	-6.5%
	Marathonbet	1.39	71.9%	64.9%	-7.0%
	Unibet	1.38	72.5%	64.9%	-7.6%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +2.6%	2.20	45.5%	42.4%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	2.15	46.5%	42.4%	-4.1%
	Unibet	2.08	48.1%	42.4%	-5.7%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +0.4%	1.58	63.3%	57.6%	-5.7%
	William Hill	1.57	63.7%	57.6%	-6.1%
	Unibet	1.57	63.7%	57.6%	-6.1%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +15.0%	3.10	32.3%	0.0%	-32.3%
	Marathonbet	2.77	36.1%	0.0%	-36.1%
	William Hill	2.75	36.4%	0.0%	-36.4%
	10Bet	2.65	37.7%	0.0%	-37.7%
	Unibet	2.60	38.5%	0.0%	-38.5%
	Bet365	2.30	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.1%	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	10Bet	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	Unibet	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	Marathonbet	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +2.9%	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	William Hill	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	Betfair	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%
	10Bet	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%
	Unibet	1.06	94.3%	0.0%	-94.3%
	Marathonbet	1.05	95.2%	0.0%	-95.2%

Model reasoning

Rosenborg W at home have been strong in results, with 8 wins from 13 matches and a solid goal record of 23 scored and 14 conceded. They also keep games relatively controlled, with 4 clean sheets, and their recent form includes three wins in their last five outings (WLDWW). Lyn W away have been more mixed, with only 4 wins from 12 matches and a recent run that leans toward losses (LWDLL). Their scoring is comparable to Rosenborg’s (21 goals), but they concede at a similar rate (13 conceded), which suggests they may struggle to consistently convert chances on the road. The matchup profile points toward Rosenborg edging the game, with the home win rated at 67.8% versus 18.4% for a draw and 13.8% for Lyn’s win. It also looks likely that the game will clear a basic scoring threshold, with over 2.5 goals at 64.9% and both teams to score at 57.6%, indicating some chance of goals for both sides even if Rosenborg are favored. Overall, the home win lean fits the home team’s better record and cleaner defensive output, but the medium risk reflects Lyn’s ability to score and the non-trivial draw probability.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:05 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Rosenborg W predictions · Lyn W predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.