Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
AI prediction
Home Win
Confidence 52/100
Home Win
Rayo Vallecano (WDDWW) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1 for Alaves (LDWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 52/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
52/100
Strongest cover
1X
77.9% probability
Risk classification
High
26.0% draw weight
Value status
Unpriced
Pre-match odds unavailable
Market sample
Unavailable
No pre-match quotes
Full distribution
Market probabilities
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Evidence ledger
Rayo Vallecano
11/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 1.08
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Alaves
7/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 1.16
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Matchup xG signal
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/10 and Over 2.5 in 1/10.
Price interpretation
Value read
Odds unavailable for this fixture
The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.
Provenance
Model card
- Version
- livewin-hybrid-v0.6
- Data source
- Licensed live data feed
- Statistics baseline
- 2025 season
- Odds timestamp
- No odds available
- Optional coverage
- H2H available · no odds
- Confidence
- Signal agreement score
- Risk
- High · uncertainty remains
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.
Head-to-Head
Alaves 1-2 Rayo Vallecano
2026-05-23T21:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Alaves 2-0 Rayo Vallecano
2026-01-14T21:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves
2025-10-26T21:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Alaves 0-2 Rayo Vallecano
2025-03-29T18:30:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves
2024-10-26T16:15:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Alaves 1-0 Rayo Vallecano
2024-03-10T14:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Alaves
2023-09-15T21:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Alaves 1-0 Rayo Vallecano
2022-04-16T16:15:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Alaves
2021-12-18T14:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Alaves 0-1 Rayo Vallecano
2019-01-28T21:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Recorded forecast
Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.
Team hubs: Rayo Vallecano predictions · Alaves predictions
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.