Live

High risk

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC vs CS Uruguay

0–02′

Tue, Aug 18, 01:00 AM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 55/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (DWLLL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.1 for CS Uruguay (LWLLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 55/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

55/100

Confidence

55/100

Strongest cover

73.6% probability

Risk classification

High

26.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

PSB win46.7%

Draw26.4%

CU win26.9%

Goals

Over 1.574.6%

Over 2.551.7%

Under 2.548.3%

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%

No44.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

4/15 recent form points

DWLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.07
Shots on target: Unavailable

CS Uruguay

4/15 recent form points

LWLLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.40
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/4 and Over 2.5 in 1/4.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 18, 12:00 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3-1 CS Uruguay

2026-04-07T03:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

CS Uruguay 0-2 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

2026-02-22T03:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

CS Uruguay 1-0 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

2025-11-09T22:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 0-0 CS Uruguay

2025-09-21T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +5.8%	3.50	28.6%	26.4%	-2.2%
	Bet365	3.40	29.4%	26.4%	-3.0%
	10Bet	3.35	29.9%	26.4%	-3.5%
	Marathonbet	3.25	30.8%	26.4%	-4.4%
	Unibet	3.25	30.8%	26.4%	-4.4%
	William Hill	3.10	32.3%	26.4%	-5.9%
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +4.9%	3.40	29.4%	26.9%	-2.5%
	10Bet	3.25	30.8%	26.9%	-3.9%
	Bet365	3.25	30.8%	26.9%	-3.9%
	Betfair	3.25	30.8%	26.9%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	3.20	31.3%	26.9%	-4.4%
	William Hill	3.10	32.3%	26.9%	-5.4%
Home 1X2	William HillBest price +6.8%	2.10	47.6%	46.7%	-0.9%
	Marathonbet	2.03	49.3%	46.7%	-2.6%
	10Bet	1.95	51.3%	46.7%	-4.6%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	46.7%	-4.6%
	Bet365	1.91	52.4%	46.7%	-5.7%
	Unibet	1.86	53.8%	46.7%	-7.1%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +7.0%	2.05	48.8%	48.3%	-0.5%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	48.3%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	1.91	52.4%	48.3%	-4.1%
	10Bet	1.90	52.6%	48.3%	-4.3%
	Unibet	1.77	56.5%	48.3%	-8.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +5.3%	1.87	53.5%	51.7%	-1.8%
	Marathonbet	1.78	56.2%	51.7%	-4.5%
	Bet365	1.75	57.1%	51.7%	-5.4%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	51.7%	-5.4%
	10Bet	1.73	57.8%	51.7%	-6.1%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +6.8%	2.20	45.5%	44.8%	-0.7%
	Marathonbet	2.06	48.5%	44.8%	-3.7%
	William Hill	2.05	48.8%	44.8%	-4.0%
	Unibet	1.93	51.8%	44.8%	-7.0%
Yes BTTS	UnibetBest price +5.3%	1.75	57.1%	55.2%	-1.9%
	William Hill	1.67	59.9%	55.2%	-4.7%
	Marathonbet	1.63	61.3%	55.2%	-6.1%
	Betfair	1.60	62.5%	55.2%	-7.3%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +4.1%	1.77	56.5%	0.0%	-56.5%
	Bet365	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Betfair	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Unibet	1.68	59.5%	0.0%	-59.5%
	William Hill	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	Marathonbet	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +6.3%	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Marathonbet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	10Bet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Unibet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.1%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	10Bet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Unibet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%

Model reasoning

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC have a slightly stronger overall record at home than CS Uruguay’s away record suggests, but both sides are fairly close in results. Pitbulls are 8W 10D 11L with 31 scored and 32 conceded, while CS Uruguay are 10W 8D 12L with 42 scored and 49 conceded, indicating CS Uruguay can create more chances but also concede more. Recent form leans against Pitbulls, with their last five results reading DWLLL, while CS Uruguay’s last five are LWLLD. That makes a home win plausible but not dominant, which aligns with the probabilities showing only a modest edge for Pitbulls (46.7% home win) versus a draw (26.4%) and CS Uruguay (26.9%). The goal outlook is more supportive of a competitive match. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 51.7%, and both teams to score is 55.2%, which fits the season-level profiles where both teams have relatively low clean-sheet counts (9 for Pitbulls, 8 for CS Uruguay) and similar concession rates. So the home win call is reasonable but carries high uncertainty given Pitbulls’ recent slump and the closeness of the win probabilities. A draw or an away win remains a meaningful risk, especially if CS Uruguay’s scoring translates despite their own inconsistent recent results.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:12 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

More predictions

All Liga de Ascenso predictions →

Team hubs: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC predictions · CS Uruguay predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.