Pre-match

Medium risk

Atlanta United II vs Chicago Fire II

Tue, Aug 18, 03:00 PMFifth Third Stadium

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 76/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Atlanta United II (LWLLL) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 1.6 for Chicago Fire II (LWWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 76/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

76/100

Confidence

76/100

Strongest cover

78.0% probability

Risk classification

Medium

22.0% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AUI win51.5%

Draw22%

CFI win26.5%

Goals

Over 1.587.6%

Over 2.569.5%

Under 2.530.5%

Both teams to score

Yes69.5%

No30.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Atlanta United II

3/15 recent form points

LWLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.05
Shots on target: Unavailable

Chicago Fire II

9/15 recent form points

LWWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.18
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/6 and Over 2.5 in 4/6.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 18, 12:13 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Atlanta United II 3-0 Chicago Fire II

2026-06-07T01:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Chicago Fire II 0-3 Atlanta United II

2026-04-18T22:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Chicago Fire II 2-5 Atlanta United II

2025-09-28T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Chicago Fire II 2-0 Atlanta United II

2024-04-28T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Chicago Fire II 2-1 Atlanta United II

2023-08-04T01:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Atlanta United II 2-0 Chicago Fire II

2023-04-23T01:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +1.4%	4.00	25.0%	22.0%	-3.0%
	Unibet	4.00	25.0%	22.0%	-3.0%
	Betfair	4.00	25.0%	22.0%	-3.0%
	BetVictor	4.00	25.0%	22.0%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	3.86	25.9%	22.0%	-3.9%
	William Hill	3.80	26.3%	22.0%	-4.3%
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +14.2%	3.85	26.0%	26.5%	+0.5%
	Marathonbet	3.42	29.2%	26.5%	-2.7%
	Betfair	3.30	30.3%	26.5%	-3.8%
	BetVictor	3.30	30.3%	26.5%	-3.8%
	Bet365	3.25	30.8%	26.5%	-4.3%
	William Hill	3.10	32.3%	26.5%	-5.8%
Home 1X2	William HillBest price +3.4%	1.85	54.1%	51.5%	-2.6%
	BetVictor	1.85	54.1%	51.5%	-2.6%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	51.5%	-4.1%
	Betfair	1.80	55.6%	51.5%	-4.1%
	Marathonbet	1.78	56.2%	51.5%	-4.7%
	Unibet	1.65	60.6%	51.5%	-9.1%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetVictorBest price +2.7%	3.10	32.3%	30.5%	-1.8%
	Bet365	3.00	33.3%	30.5%	-2.8%
	Unibet	3.00	33.3%	30.5%	-2.8%
	Marathonbet	2.97	33.7%	30.5%	-3.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.8%	1.36	73.5%	69.5%	-4.0%
	BetVictor	1.33	75.2%	69.5%	-5.7%
	Marathonbet	1.30	76.9%	69.5%	-7.4%
	Unibet	1.30	76.9%	69.5%	-7.4%
No BTTS	BetVictorBest price +4.3%	3.13	31.9%	30.5%	-1.4%
	Marathonbet	2.97	33.7%	30.5%	-3.2%
	William Hill	2.90	34.5%	30.5%	-4.0%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +1.3%	1.33	75.2%	69.5%	-5.7%
	Marathonbet	1.31	76.3%	69.5%	-6.8%
	BetVictor	1.30	76.9%	69.5%	-7.4%
Draw or Away Double Chance	UnibetBest price +4.3%	1.94	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	William Hill	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	Bet365	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	BetVictor	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	Marathonbet	1.82	54.9%	0.0%	-54.9%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.3%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	BetVictor	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Unibet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +1.8%	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	BetVictor	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%

Model reasoning

Atlanta United II have scored 45 goals in 22 matches and conceded 40, which suggests they can contribute to scoring but also allow chances. Their recent form is mixed, with results reading LWLLL, so scoring may not be consistent, but the season totals still point to an open enough game. Chicago Fire II have a similar profile with 48 goals scored and 37 conceded across 22 matches, plus 5 clean sheets. Their recent form is stronger than Atlanta’s (LWWLW), which supports the idea that they can add goals even if the match is competitive. With both teams’ season goal totals relatively high and both sides conceding at a moderate rate, the likelihood of at least three combined goals looks favorable. The probabilities provided also align with this, with over 2.5 goals at 69.5% and both teams to score at 69.5%. The home/away win split is fairly balanced (Atlanta 51.5%, draw 22.0%, Chicago 26.5%), so a draw is plausible, but the scoring indicators still lean toward a multi-goal outcome. Confidence is fairly solid at 76, though the medium risk reflects Atlanta’s recent scoring dip.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:03 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Atlanta United II predictions · Chicago Fire II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.