Pre-match

Medium risk

Sogdiana vs Qizilqum

Tue, Aug 18, 02:00 PMSogdiana Sport Complex

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 73/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Sogdiana (LLWWW) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.1 for Qizilqum (LDLLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 73/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

73/100

Confidence

73/100

Strongest cover

75.4% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

51 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

S win49.3%

Draw26.1%

Q win24.6%

Goals

Over 1.579.7%

Over 2.550.4%

Under 2.549.6%

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%

No45.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Sogdiana

9/15 recent form points

LLWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.76
Shots on target: Unavailable

Qizilqum

4/15 recent form points

LDLLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.75
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 18, 12:14 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Qizilqum 1-3 Sogdiana

2026-04-13T17:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sogdiana 3-0 Qizilqum

2025-11-02T11:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Sogdiana 4-1 Qizilqum

2025-06-24T16:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Qizilqum 0-0 Sogdiana

2025-06-14T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Qizilqum 1-1 Sogdiana

2024-09-13T15:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Sogdiana 1-0 Qizilqum

2024-04-05T16:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Qizilqum 4-2 Sogdiana

2023-09-30T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sogdiana 1-0 Qizilqum

2023-04-22T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Qizilqum 2-1 Sogdiana

2022-11-12T13:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sogdiana 1-1 Qizilqum

2022-09-02T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	PinnacleBest price +4.3%	3.70	27.0%	24.6%	-2.4%
	BetVictor	3.60	27.8%	24.6%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	3.58	27.9%	24.6%	-3.3%
	William Hill	3.50	28.6%	24.6%	-4.0%
	Betfair	3.50	28.6%	24.6%	-4.0%
	Bet365	3.40	29.4%	24.6%	-4.8%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +3.8%	3.50	28.6%	26.1%	-2.5%
	Betfair	3.40	29.4%	26.1%	-3.3%
	BetVictor	3.40	29.4%	26.1%	-3.3%
	Pinnacle	3.39	29.5%	26.1%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	3.34	29.9%	26.1%	-3.8%
	William Hill	3.20	31.3%	26.1%	-5.1%
Home 1X2	PinnacleBest price +2.2%	1.94	51.5%	49.3%	-2.2%
	William Hill	1.91	52.4%	49.3%	-3.1%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	49.3%	-3.1%
	BetVictor	1.91	52.4%	49.3%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	1.87	53.5%	49.3%	-4.2%
	Bet365	1.85	54.1%	49.3%	-4.8%
Under 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +2.2%	1.91	52.4%	49.6%	-2.8%
	Bet365	1.90	52.6%	49.6%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	1.85	54.1%	49.6%	-4.5%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	49.6%	-4.5%
	BetVictor	1.83	54.6%	49.6%	-5.0%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.9%	1.90	52.6%	50.4%	-2.2%
	Pinnacle	1.89	52.9%	50.4%	-2.5%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	50.4%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	1.84	54.3%	50.4%	-3.9%
	BetVictor	1.84	54.3%	50.4%	-3.9%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +2.4%	2.05	48.8%	45.9%	-2.9%
	William Hill	2.00	50.0%	45.9%	-4.1%
	BetVictor	2.00	50.0%	45.9%	-4.1%
	Marathonbet	1.96	51.0%	45.9%	-5.1%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.3%	1.73	57.8%	54.1%	-3.7%
	William Hill	1.70	58.8%	54.1%	-4.7%
	Marathonbet	1.70	58.8%	54.1%	-4.7%
	BetVictor	1.70	58.8%	54.1%	-4.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +2.3%	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	BetVictor	1.78	56.2%	0.0%	-56.2%
	William Hill	1.75	57.1%	0.0%	-57.1%
	Marathonbet	1.74	57.5%	0.0%	-57.5%
	Betfair	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.8%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	BetVictor	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +0.6%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	BetVictor	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%

Model reasoning

Sogdiana at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Qizilqum away, with 6 wins from 17 matches compared to Qizilqum’s 5 wins from 16. Sogdiana’s recent form is also more positive, showing LLWWW in their last five, while Qizilqum’s last five is LDLLW, which includes more losses. In goal terms, Sogdiana has scored 30 and conceded 35, while Qizilqum has scored 12 and conceded 24. That suggests Sogdiana may create more scoring opportunities, even though their defense is not dominant, and Qizilqum’s lower scoring output limits their upside. The market-style probabilities align with a close match: home win is 49.3% versus draw 26.1% and away win 24.6%. Both teams to score is 54.1%, and over 2.5 goals is 50.4%, so the game looks more like a narrow, competitive contest than a comfortable home victory. With home win rated at 73 confidence and risk level medium, the home edge seems modest and could swing if Qizilqum manage to keep Sogdiana from converting their recent form into goals.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:12 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.