Pre-match

High risk

CSKA Moscow vs Akron

Tue, Aug 18, 03:30 PMVEB Arena

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 49/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

CSKA Moscow (WWLWL) project at 2.1 expected goals versus 1.1 for Akron (WLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 49/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

49/100

Confidence

49/100

Strongest cover

84.6% probability

Risk classification

High

20.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

5 sources

34 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

CM win64.5%

Draw20.1%

A win15.4%

Goals

Over 1.582.5%

Over 2.557.9%

Under 2.542.1%

Both teams to score

Yes53.9%

No46.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

CSKA Moscow

9/15 recent form points

WWLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.75
Shots on target: Unavailable

Akron

3/15 recent form points

WLLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.17
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/7 and Over 2.5 in 6/7.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 18, 12:34 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Akron 1-2 CSKA Moscow

2026-04-04T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Akron 1-3 CSKA Moscow

2026-01-22T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

CSKA Moscow 3-2 Akron

2025-10-21T19:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

CSKA Moscow 3-1 Akron

2025-08-24T16:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Akron 1-1 CSKA Moscow

2025-08-12T15:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Akron 1-2 CSKA Moscow

2025-03-16T11:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

CSKA Moscow 4-0 Akron

2024-08-24T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +7.7%	6.05	16.5%	15.4%	-1.1%
	Pinnacle	5.95	16.8%	15.4%	-1.4%
	1xBet	5.85	17.1%	15.4%	-1.7%
	Dafabet	5.40	18.5%	15.4%	-3.1%
	SBO	4.84	20.7%	15.4%	-5.3%
Draw 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +6.1%	4.65	21.5%	20.1%	-1.4%
	1xBet	4.65	21.5%	20.1%	-1.4%
	Pinnacle	4.55	22.0%	20.1%	-1.9%
	Dafabet	4.30	23.3%	20.1%	-3.2%
	SBO	3.76	26.6%	20.1%	-6.5%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +2.5%	1.54	64.9%	64.5%	-0.4%
	Marathonbet	1.52	65.8%	64.5%	-1.3%
	Pinnacle	1.51	66.2%	64.5%	-1.7%
	Dafabet	1.50	66.7%	64.5%	-2.2%
	SBO	1.44	69.4%	64.5%	-4.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +0.3%	2.27	44.1%	42.1%	-2.0%
	Marathonbet	2.26	44.2%	42.1%	-2.1%
	1xBet	2.26	44.2%	42.1%	-2.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +0.2%	1.66	60.2%	57.9%	-2.3%
	1xBet	1.66	60.2%	57.9%	-2.3%
	Pinnacle	1.65	60.6%	57.9%	-2.7%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +0.7%	2.02	49.5%	46.1%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	1.99	50.3%	46.1%	-4.2%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.73	57.8%	53.9%	-3.9%
	1xBet	1.73	57.8%	53.9%	-3.9%
Draw or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +4.4%	2.63	38.0%	0.0%	-38.0%
	1xBet	2.63	38.0%	0.0%	-38.0%
	SBO	2.30	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +2.2%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	1xBet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	SBO	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +2.4%	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	1xBet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	SBO	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%

Model reasoning

CSKA Moscow at home has a stronger overall record than Akron, with 7 wins from 12 matches compared to Akron’s 2 wins from 6 away matches. CSKA also has a better goal profile, scoring 21 and conceding 17, while Akron has scored 7 and conceded 13, suggesting CSKA is more likely to create and convert chances at home. The recent form leans toward CSKA as well, with CSKA showing a run that includes more wins (WWLWL) than Akron’s difficult stretch (WLLLL). Akron’s lack of clean sheets this season also points to CSKA having a reasonable chance to score, even if the match is in a cup setting where outcomes can be tighter. Goal expectations are moderately favorable for a higher-scoring game. CSKA’s and Akron’s combined scoring and concession rates support over 2.5 goals at 57.9%, and both teams to score is also slightly more likely than not at 53.9%, though neither side’s defensive record is dominant. With home win priced at 64.5% but confidenceScore at 49 and riskLevel high, the edge for CSKA looks present but not strong enough to be fully reliable. The most plausible pattern is CSKA edging the match, with some chance that Akron still finds a goal.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:35 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.