Pre-match

High risk

Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Hebar 1918

Tue, Aug 18, 03:30 PMHristo Botev

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 45/100

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad (LDLWL) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.1 for Hebar 1918 (LLWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 45/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

45/100

Confidence

45/100

Strongest cover

71.5% probability

Risk classification

High

28.5% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

53 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

PB win32.9%

Draw28.5%

H1 win38.6%

Goals

Over 1.575.8%

Over 2.545.1%

Under 2.554.9%

Both teams to score

Yes51.2%

No48.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Pirin Blagoevgrad

4/15 recent form points

LDLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.19
Shots on target: Unavailable

Hebar 1918

4/15 recent form points

LLWDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.28
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 18, 12:38 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2-2 Hebar 1918

2026-04-16T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Hebar 1918 4-2 Pirin Blagoevgrad

2025-10-18T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Pirin Blagoevgrad 0-0 Hebar 1918

2024-05-21T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1-1 Hebar 1918

2024-03-11T16:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Hebar 1918 2-1 Pirin Blagoevgrad

2024-02-28T13:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Hebar 1918 1-2 Pirin Blagoevgrad

2023-09-18T16:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2-1 Hebar 1918

2023-05-12T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2-0 Hebar 1918

2023-03-11T11:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Hebar 1918 0-0 Pirin Blagoevgrad

2022-08-28T17:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2-0 Hebar 1918

2021-02-12T14:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +3.1%	3.20	31.3%	28.5%	-2.8%
	BetVictor	3.13	31.9%	28.5%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	3.10	32.3%	28.5%	-3.8%
	Betfair	3.10	32.3%	28.5%	-3.8%
	1xBet	3.10	32.3%	28.5%	-3.8%
	Unibet	3.00	33.3%	28.5%	-4.8%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +9.3%	3.05	32.8%	32.9%	+0.1%
	1xBet	2.85	35.1%	32.9%	-2.2%
	Marathonbet	2.79	35.8%	32.9%	-2.9%
	Betfair	2.75	36.4%	32.9%	-3.5%
	BetVictor	2.75	36.4%	32.9%	-3.5%
	Bet365	2.55	39.2%	32.9%	-6.3%
Away 1X2	Bet365Best price +3.3%	2.40	41.7%	38.6%	-3.1%
	BetVictor	2.40	41.7%	38.6%	-3.1%
	Betfair	2.38	42.0%	38.6%	-3.4%
	1xBet	2.34	42.7%	38.6%	-4.1%
	Marathonbet	2.32	43.1%	38.6%	-4.5%
	Unibet	2.10	47.6%	38.6%	-9.0%
Over 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +2.0%	2.10	47.6%	45.1%	-2.5%
	Unibet	2.06	48.5%	45.1%	-3.4%
	Bet365	2.05	48.8%	45.1%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	2.04	49.0%	45.1%	-3.9%
	1xBet	2.04	49.0%	45.1%	-3.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +4.7%	1.75	57.1%	54.9%	-2.2%
	Marathonbet	1.68	59.5%	54.9%	-4.6%
	1xBet	1.68	59.5%	54.9%	-4.6%
	Betfair	1.65	60.6%	54.9%	-5.7%
	Unibet	1.60	62.5%	54.9%	-7.6%
No BTTS	BetVictorBest price +3.1%	1.93	51.8%	48.8%	-3.0%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	48.8%	-3.6%
	1xBet	1.88	53.2%	48.8%	-4.4%
	Marathonbet	1.85	54.1%	48.8%	-5.3%
	Unibet	1.79	55.9%	48.8%	-7.1%
Yes BTTS	UnibetBest price +0.9%	1.81	55.2%	51.2%	-4.0%
	Betfair	1.80	55.6%	51.2%	-4.4%
	Marathonbet	1.79	55.9%	51.2%	-4.7%
	1xBet	1.79	55.9%	51.2%	-4.7%
	BetVictor	1.78	56.2%	51.2%	-5.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	UnibetBest price +2.8%	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	Betfair	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	Marathonbet	1.47	68.0%	0.0%	-68.0%
	1xBet	1.47	68.0%	0.0%	-68.0%
	Bet365	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +6.7%	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Betfair	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Marathonbet	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	1xBet	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Unibet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +1.9%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Marathonbet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	1xBet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	Unibet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%

Model reasoning

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home have scored 38 goals and conceded 41 across 32 matches, with 10 clean sheets. Their recent form is mixed but includes two wins in the last five games (LDLWL), suggesting they can keep games controlled, even if they do not dominate scoring. Hebar 1918 away have scored 41 and conceded 51 in 32 matches, with 7 clean sheets. Their recent form is also mixed, with only one win in the last five (LLWDL), and their overall goal record implies they concede more than they score, which can limit their ability to force high-scoring outcomes. With both teams’ season totals showing relatively modest scoring and fairly close goal differences, the matchup leans toward fewer goals. The probabilities provided support this: over 2.5 goals is at 45.1%, while both teams to score is higher at 51.2%, indicating some chance of goals but not a strong edge for a three-goal game. Given the uncertainty in recent form and the fairly even win/draw/away-win split, the under 2.5 call is plausible but not strong, aligning with the 45 confidence score and high risk level.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:33 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Pirin Blagoevgrad predictions · Hebar 1918 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.