Cup
Pre-match
High risk

Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit

Wed, Aug 19, 01:15 PMSamara Arena

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 45/100

Model verdict
High risk

BTTS Yes

Krylia Sovetov (LWWWL) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.6 for Zenit (LWWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 45/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

45/100

Confidence
45/100

Strongest cover

12

74.8% probability

Risk classification

High

25.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

KS win31.2%
Draw25.2%
Z win43.6%

Goals

Over 1.580.7%
Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%

Both teams to score

Yes60.7%
No39.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Krylia Sovetov

9/15 recent form points

LWWWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.80
Shots on target
Unavailable

Zenit

9/15 recent form points

LWWWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.09
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Zenit 2-1 Krylia Sovetov

2026-04-04T14:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Zenit

2025-11-09T11:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Zenit 2-3 Krylia Sovetov

2024-12-01T14:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Krylia Sovetov 0-4 Zenit

2024-07-20T16:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Krylya Sovetov 1-1 Zenit Saint Petersburg

2024-03-30T12:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1-0 Krylya Sovetov

2023-10-31T17:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Zenit Saint Petersburg 3-1 Krylya Sovetov

2023-10-22T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Krylya Sovetov 0-1 Zenit Saint Petersburg

2023-08-09T17:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Krylya Sovetov 1-5 Zenit Saint Petersburg

2023-04-29T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Zenit Saint Petersburg 2-1 Krylya Sovetov

2022-10-20T19:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Zenit look slightly more likely to edge the match, with a stronger away record (9W 0D 2L) than Krylia Sovetov’s home record (6W 0D 4L). Zenit also have a clear defensive advantage this season, conceding 9 goals in 11 matches versus Krylia Sovetov’s 20 conceded in 10. The BTTS Yes angle is supported by both teams’ scoring and defensive profiles. Krylia Sovetov have scored 18 in 10, while Zenit have scored 23 in 11, and Zenit’s 9 conceded suggests they can keep games controlled but not necessarily shut out opponents every time. Goal volume also leans toward both teams getting on the scoresheet. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 57.5%, and both teams to score is estimated at 60.7%, which aligns with Zenit’s ability to score while Krylia Sovetov still produce goals at home. Confidence is moderate and risk is high (confidenceScore 45), so while BTTS Yes is the more favorable direction, the match could still tilt toward a one-sided scoreline given Zenit’s stronger results and clean-sheet count (6) compared with Krylia Sovetov (2).

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:34 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Krylia Sovetov predictions · Zenit predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.