Pre-match

Medium risk

KAMAZ vs Tekstilshchik

Wed, Aug 19, 03:00 PMKAMAZ Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 67/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

KAMAZ (LLDLD) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.2 for Tekstilshchik (DDLDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 67/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

67/100

Confidence

67/100

Strongest cover

78.0% probability

Risk classification

Medium

27.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

44 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

K win50.6%

Draw27.4%

T win22%

Goals

Over 1.573.8%

Over 2.544.9%

Under 2.555.1%

Both teams to score

Yes48.6%

No51.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

KAMAZ

2/15 recent form points

LLDLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Tekstilshchik

3/15 recent form points

DDLDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.67
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/3 and Over 2.5 in 1/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 19, 08:47 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

KAMAZ 1-1 Tekstilshchik

2023-02-20T15:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Tekstilshchik 4-1 KAMAZ

2021-10-31T12:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

KAMAZ 1-0 Tekstilshchik

2021-07-17T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	PinnacleBest price +7.5%	4.44	22.5%	22.0%	-0.5%
	1xBet	4.28	23.4%	22.0%	-1.4%
	Dafabet	4.20	23.8%	22.0%	-1.8%
	Marathonbet	4.15	24.1%	22.0%	-2.1%
	Superbet	4.00	25.0%	22.0%	-3.0%
	SBO	3.72	26.9%	22.0%	-4.9%
Draw 1X2	1xBetBest price +6.2%	3.52	28.4%	27.4%	-1.0%
	Pinnacle	3.47	28.8%	27.4%	-1.4%
	Marathonbet	3.42	29.2%	27.4%	-1.8%
	Dafabet	3.25	30.8%	27.4%	-3.4%
	Superbet	3.20	31.3%	27.4%	-3.9%
	SBO	3.02	33.1%	27.4%	-5.7%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +1.4%	1.89	52.9%	50.6%	-2.3%
	Pinnacle	1.88	53.2%	50.6%	-2.6%
	Superbet	1.88	53.2%	50.6%	-2.6%
	Dafabet	1.88	53.2%	50.6%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	1.83	54.6%	50.6%	-4.0%
	SBO	1.82	54.9%	50.6%	-4.3%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +1.1%	2.13	46.9%	44.9%	-2.0%
	1xBet	2.12	47.2%	44.9%	-2.3%
	Superbet	2.10	47.6%	44.9%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	2.08	48.1%	44.9%	-3.2%
Under 2.5 Totals	1xBetBest price +2.1%	1.74	57.5%	55.1%	-2.4%
	Pinnacle	1.73	57.8%	55.1%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	1.71	58.5%	55.1%	-3.4%
	Superbet	1.64	61.0%	55.1%	-5.9%
Yes BTTS	SuperbetBest price +2.1%	1.95	51.3%	48.6%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	1.89	52.9%	48.6%	-4.3%
	1xBet	1.89	52.9%	48.6%	-4.3%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +1.1%	1.81	55.2%	51.4%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	1.79	55.9%	51.4%	-4.5%
	Superbet	1.77	56.5%	51.4%	-5.1%
Draw or Away Double Chance	SBOBest price +4.5%	1.97	50.8%	0.0%	-50.8%
	1xBet	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	Marathonbet	1.88	53.2%	0.0%	-53.2%
	Superbet	1.78	56.2%	0.0%	-56.2%
Home or Away Double Chance	1xBetBest price +2.8%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Marathonbet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Superbet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	SBO	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
Home or Draw Double Chance	1xBetBest price +3.6%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
	Superbet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
	SBO	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%

Model reasoning

KAMAZ at home have struggled in results, with 0 wins from 6 matches and a goal record of 6 scored and 12 conceded. Their recent form is also mixed-to-weak (LLDLD), and they have not kept a clean sheet this season, which limits their margin for error. Tekstilshchik away have also had difficulty turning matches into wins, but they are slightly more resilient defensively, conceding 8 in 6 matches and recording 2 clean sheets. Their recent form (DDLDL) suggests they can avoid defeat more often than they can dominate, even though they have only 4 goals in 6 away matches. The probabilities lean toward a KAMAZ home win at 50.6%, with draws at 27.4% and Tekstilshchik at 22.0%. That said, the overall goal indicators are not strongly supportive of a high-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals at 44.9% and both teams to score at 48.6%, so a tight match or a low-to-moderate scoring outcome is plausible. With a confidence score of 67 and medium risk, the home win case looks more like a slight edge than a clear advantage, especially given KAMAZ’s winless home record and Tekstilshchik’s ability to keep clean sheets.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 19 Aug 2026 11:30 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.