Pre-match

Medium risk

Elva vs Maardu

Thu, Aug 20, 09:30 AMNike Arena

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 74/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Elva (WWDWL) project at 2.1 expected goals versus 1.3 for Maardu (LWWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 74/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

74/100

Confidence

74/100

Strongest cover

77.1% probability

Risk classification

Medium

22.9% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

48 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

E win47.5%

Draw22.9%

M win29.6%

Goals

Over 1.586.2%

Over 2.569%

Under 2.531%

Both teams to score

Yes67.2%

No32.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Elva

10/15 recent form points

WWDWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.78
Shots on target: Unavailable

Maardu

9/15 recent form points

LWWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.57
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/5 and Over 2.5 in 4/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 20, 12:00 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Elva 4-3 Maardu

2026-06-11T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Maardu 0-3 Elva

2026-03-12T17:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Maardu 2-1 Elva

2021-10-14T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Elva 0-1 Maardu

2021-08-25T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Elva 0-6 Maardu

2021-06-20T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +8.6%	4.10	24.4%	22.9%	-1.5%
	Betfair	3.90	25.6%	22.9%	-2.7%
	BetVictor	3.80	26.3%	22.9%	-3.4%
	Unibet	3.75	26.7%	22.9%	-3.8%
	10Bet	3.70	27.0%	22.9%	-4.1%
	William Hill	3.40	29.4%	22.9%	-6.5%
Away 1X2	10BetBest price +5.0%	3.10	32.3%	29.6%	-2.7%
	William Hill	3.10	32.3%	29.6%	-2.7%
	BetVictor	3.10	32.3%	29.6%	-2.7%
	Betfair	3.00	33.3%	29.6%	-3.7%
	Unibet	2.80	35.7%	29.6%	-6.1%
	Bet365	2.62	38.2%	29.6%	-8.6%
Home 1X2	Bet365Best price +2.8%	2.00	50.0%	47.5%	-2.5%
	William Hill	1.95	51.3%	47.5%	-3.8%
	Unibet	1.95	51.3%	47.5%	-3.8%
	BetVictor	1.95	51.3%	47.5%	-3.8%
	10Bet	1.91	52.4%	47.5%	-4.9%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	47.5%	-4.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +9.8%	3.25	30.8%	31.0%	+0.2%
	Betfair	2.88	34.7%	31.0%	-3.7%
	Bet365	2.75	36.4%	31.0%	-5.4%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +6.1%	1.40	71.4%	69.0%	-2.4%
	Betfair	1.36	73.5%	69.0%	-4.5%
	Unibet	1.20	83.3%	69.0%	-14.3%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +5.9%	3.00	33.3%	32.8%	-0.5%
	BetVictor	2.88	34.7%	32.8%	-1.9%
	William Hill	2.62	38.2%	32.8%	-5.4%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +1.9%	1.40	71.4%	67.2%	-4.2%
	Betfair	1.36	73.5%	67.2%	-6.3%
	BetVictor	1.36	73.5%	67.2%	-6.3%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +5.3%	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	William Hill	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Betfair	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	BetVictor	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Bet365	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	Unibet	1.60	62.5%	0.0%	-62.5%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +7.3%	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	William Hill	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	BetVictor	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Unibet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	10Bet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.6%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	BetVictor	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	10Bet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%

Model reasoning

Elva at home has scored 41 goals in 23 matches and conceded 37, suggesting fairly open games rather than tight low-scoring ones. Their recent form includes two wins and a draw in the last five, which supports the idea they can contribute goals at home. Maardu’s away record is 9W 5D 9L with 36 goals scored and 50 conceded, indicating they allow more goals on the road than they produce. With only 3 clean sheets across the season, they look more vulnerable defensively away from home, which raises the likelihood of at least three total goals. The matchup profile fits the Over 2.5 goals angle: Elva’s scoring rate is relatively solid (41 in 23) and Maardu’s concession rate is higher (50 in 23). The probability for over 2.5 goals is 69.0%, and both teams to score is 67.2%, aligning with the expectation of goals from both sides. With a confidence score of 74 and medium risk, the main uncertainty is that both teams have enough draws and losses that the game could still settle into a lower-scoring outcome, but the season goal trends lean toward a multi-goal match.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:21 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.