Pre-match

Medium risk

Johvi Phoenix vs JK Tabasalu

Thu, Aug 20, 12:00 PM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 60/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Johvi Phoenix (WDWLL) project at 2.6 expected goals versus 1.4 for JK Tabasalu (WLLLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 60/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

60/100

Confidence

60/100

Strongest cover

80.1% probability

Risk classification

Medium

19.9% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

43 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

JP win31.1%

Draw19.9%

JT win49%

Goals

Over 1.591.3%

Over 2.576.2%

Under 2.523.8%

Both teams to score

Yes76.3%

No23.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Johvi Phoenix

7/15 recent form points

WDWLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.22
Shots on target: Unavailable

JK Tabasalu

4/15 recent form points

WLLLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.52
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/6 and Over 2.5 in 6/6.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 20, 12:19 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Johvi Phoenix 1-2 JK Tabasalu

2026-05-09T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

JK Tabasalu 2-1 Johvi Phoenix

2026-04-18T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

JK Tabasalu 2-2 Johvi Phoenix

2025-09-18T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Johvi Phoenix 3-1 JK Tabasalu

2025-08-16T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Johvi Phoenix 2-2 JK Tabasalu

2025-05-10T11:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

JK Tabasalu 1-3 Johvi Phoenix

2025-04-12T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	1xBetBest price +4.9%	4.60	21.7%	19.9%	-1.8%
	William Hill	4.50	22.2%	19.9%	-2.3%
	Bet365	4.50	22.2%	19.9%	-2.3%
	Betfair	4.40	22.7%	19.9%	-2.8%
	Superbet	4.20	23.8%	19.9%	-3.9%
	Unibet	4.10	24.4%	19.9%	-4.5%
Home 1X2	BetfairBest price +7.3%	3.25	30.8%	31.1%	+0.3%
	Superbet	3.10	32.3%	31.1%	-1.2%
	1xBet	3.02	33.1%	31.1%	-2.0%
	William Hill	3.00	33.3%	31.1%	-2.2%
	Bet365	3.00	33.3%	31.1%	-2.2%
	Unibet	2.80	35.7%	31.1%	-4.6%
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +6.7%	1.95	51.3%	49.0%	-2.3%
	1xBet	1.85	54.1%	49.0%	-5.1%
	Superbet	1.82	54.9%	49.0%	-5.9%
	William Hill	1.80	55.6%	49.0%	-6.6%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	49.0%	-6.6%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	49.0%	-8.1%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +13.9%	4.50	22.2%	23.8%	+1.6%
	Bet365	3.75	26.7%	23.8%	-2.9%
	1xBet	3.60	27.8%	23.8%	-4.0%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.5%	1.25	80.0%	76.2%	-3.8%
	1xBet	1.24	80.6%	76.2%	-4.4%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	76.2%	-9.3%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +0.5%	4.00	25.0%	23.7%	-1.3%
	1xBet	3.96	25.3%	23.7%	-1.6%
Yes BTTS	1xBetBest price +1.2%	1.23	81.3%	76.3%	-5.0%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	76.3%	-7.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +5.8%	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	1xBet	1.87	53.5%	0.0%	-53.5%
	Bet365	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	Superbet	1.78	56.2%	0.0%	-56.2%
	Unibet	1.64	61.0%	0.0%	-61.0%
Draw or Away Double Chance	1xBetBest price +2.9%	1.34	74.6%	0.0%	-74.6%
	Bet365	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Unibet	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Superbet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +1.7%	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	1xBet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	Unibet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Superbet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%

Model reasoning

JK Tabasalu have the edge in match outcome likelihood, with a higher away win probability (49.0%) than Johvi Phoenix’s home win chance (31.1%). The draw is relatively less likely at 19.9%, suggesting the model expects one side to edge the contest rather than a stalemate. Both teams’ scoring profiles point toward goals at both ends. Johvi Phoenix have scored 51 and conceded 51 in 23 matches, while JK Tabasalu have scored 35 and conceded 59, indicating that even when Tabasalu struggle to win, they still allow goals and can contribute at the other end. The goal environment is also strongly tilted toward a higher-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals at 76.2%. That aligns with the BTTS Yes probability of 76.3%, implying the most likely script is that each team finds the net rather than one team keeping the other scoreless. Clean sheets are limited for both sides, with Johvi Phoenix at 2 and JK Tabasalu at 3, which supports the medium-risk BTTS Yes call. Recent form is mixed for both teams (Johvi Phoenix: WDWLL; JK Tabasalu: WLLLD), so while the scoring expectation is high, the exact balance of who scores more is less certain.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:21 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Johvi Phoenix predictions · JK Tabasalu predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.