Pre-match

High risk

FC Tallinn vs Nõmme United II

Thu, Aug 20, 12:00 PM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 68/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

FC Tallinn (LWWDL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.6 for Nõmme United II (LLWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 68/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

68/100

Confidence

68/100

Strongest cover

78.4% probability

Risk classification

High

21.6% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

FT win39.8%

Draw21.6%

NUI win38.6%

Goals

Over 1.586.4%

Over 2.572.6%

Under 2.527.4%

Both teams to score

Yes73.9%

No26.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

FC Tallinn

7/15 recent form points

LWWDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.26
Shots on target: Unavailable

Nõmme United II

6/15 recent form points

LLWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.78
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/2 and Over 2.5 in 2/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 20, 08:14 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

FC Tallinn 4-3 Nõmme United II

2026-07-04T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nõmme United II 2-2 FC Tallinn

2026-03-22T18:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +5.2%	4.20	23.8%	21.6%	-2.2%
	Marathonbet	4.20	23.8%	21.6%	-2.2%
	Betfair	4.00	25.0%	21.6%	-3.4%
	10Bet	3.95	25.3%	21.6%	-3.7%
	William Hill	3.90	25.6%	21.6%	-4.0%
	Unibet	3.70	27.0%	21.6%	-5.4%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +8.7%	2.48	40.3%	39.8%	-0.5%
	Bet365	2.30	43.5%	39.8%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	2.26	44.2%	39.8%	-4.4%
	William Hill	2.25	44.4%	39.8%	-4.6%
	10Bet	2.20	45.5%	39.8%	-5.7%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	39.8%	-5.7%
Away 1X2	10BetBest price +5.8%	2.45	40.8%	38.6%	-2.2%
	Betfair	2.45	40.8%	38.6%	-2.2%
	Marathonbet	2.32	43.1%	38.6%	-4.5%
	William Hill	2.30	43.5%	38.6%	-4.9%
	Bet365	2.25	44.4%	38.6%	-5.8%
	Unibet	2.12	47.2%	38.6%	-8.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +17.1%	4.00	25.0%	27.4%	+2.4%
	Marathonbet	3.78	26.5%	27.4%	+0.9%
	Bet365	3.00	33.3%	27.4%	-5.9%
	Unibet	2.88	34.7%	27.4%	-7.3%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +8.6%	1.36	73.5%	72.6%	-0.9%
	Unibet	1.26	79.4%	72.6%	-6.8%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	72.6%	-10.7%
	Marathonbet	1.19	84.0%	72.6%	-11.4%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +3.9%	3.70	27.0%	26.1%	-0.9%
	Marathonbet	3.58	27.9%	26.1%	-1.8%
	William Hill	3.40	29.4%	26.1%	-3.3%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +0.8%	1.25	80.0%	73.9%	-6.1%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	73.9%	-6.1%
	Marathonbet	1.22	82.0%	73.9%	-8.1%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +6.2%	1.60	62.5%	0.0%	-62.5%
	William Hill	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
	Betfair	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	Bet365	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Marathonbet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Unibet	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +2.7%	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	10Bet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	William Hill	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Unibet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Marathonbet	1.47	68.0%	0.0%	-68.0%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.0%	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	10Bet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Marathonbet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%

Model reasoning

FC Tallinn at home have scored 29 goals and conceded 51 across 23 matches, with only 3 clean sheets. Their recent form includes two wins but also multiple losses, suggesting they can struggle to keep games tight defensively. Nõmme United II away have scored 41 and conceded 51 in 23 matches, also with just 3 clean sheets, which points to a similar vulnerability at the back. The goal profiles support a match where both sides find scoring opportunities. Tallinn’s low clean-sheet count alongside their conceded goals, combined with Nõmme United II’s relatively strong scoring output away, aligns with the high both teams to score probability of 73.9%. There’s also a strong lean toward goals overall, with over 2.5 goals at 72.6%. Even though both teams have losing records overall, the balance of goals scored versus goals conceded suggests the game is more likely to produce at least a few scoring events than to end in a low-scoring stalemate. With home win 39.8% and away win 38.6% being close, the draw at 21.6% keeps outcomes fairly open, which fits the higher risk level. The BTTS Yes angle looks like the most consistent read from the provided stats, rather than a confident single-side result.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:42 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: FC Tallinn predictions · Nõmme United II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.