Finished

High risk

Avangard Kursk vs Kristall MEZ

1–1Full time

Wed, Aug 12, 10:00 AM

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 35/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Away Win

Avangard Kursk (L) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.5 for Kristall MEZ (WWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

35/100

Confidence

35/100

Strongest cover

77.2% probability

Risk classification

High

22.8% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AK win27.3%

Draw22.8%

KM win49.9%

Goals

Over 1.578.2%

Over 2.554%

Under 2.546%

Both teams to score

Yes58%

No42%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Avangard Kursk

0/3 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Kristall MEZ

9/12 recent form points

WWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 0/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Avangard Kursk 1-1 Kristall MEZ

2026-08-12T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Kristall MEZ look more likely to win the cup tie on the current form and scoring profile. They have 3 wins in 4 matches with 8 goals scored, while Avangard Kursk are winless in their only match so far, scoring 1 and conceding 2. The away side also shows a slightly stronger defensive output, with 1 clean sheet in 4 matches compared to Avangard Kursk having none. That said, Avangard’s single match still produced a goal, so the home team isn’t completely shut out. The goal-related indicators lean toward a more open game. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 54.0%, and both teams to score at 58.0%, which fits with Kristall’s ability to find goals and Avangard’s recent concession rate. With an away win probability of 49.9% and a confidence score of 35, the edge for Kristall MEZ is present but not strong, so the high risk reflects that the outcome could easily swing toward a draw or a narrow home result.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 49.4% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.1535 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Tue, 11 Aug 2026 23:01 UTC, before kickoff at 1.85 (1xBet), by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

More predictions

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Team hubs: Avangard Kursk predictions · Kristall MEZ predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.