Finished

High risk

Alianza FC vs CD Olimpia

1–3Full time

Fri, Aug 21, 01:00 AMEstadio Javier Cruz

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 41/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Away Win

Alianza FC (LWL) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.4 for CD Olimpia (WWWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 41/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

41/100

Confidence

41/100

Strongest cover

73.2% probability

Risk classification

High

26.8% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AF win28.5%

Draw26.8%

CO win44.7%

Goals

Over 1.574.3%

Over 2.548.6%

Under 2.551.4%

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%

No46.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Alianza FC

3/9 recent form points

LWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

CD Olimpia

10/15 recent form points

WWWDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.25
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Alianza FC 1-3 CD Olimpia

2026-08-21T03:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

CD Olimpia look slightly more likely to win away, with their record reading 5W 2D 1L compared with Alianza FC’s 1W 0D 2L at home. Olimpia have also scored more overall (18 goals vs 3) and conceded fewer (8 vs 5), which supports the away-win lean. The match profile also points to a fairly open game. Olimpia’s recent form includes a strong run of results (WWWDL), while Alianza’s recent form is mixed (LWL), suggesting Alianza have struggled to string positive results together. There’s a modest chance of goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48.6% and both teams to score at 53.6%. That aligns with Alianza conceding 5 in just 3 home matches and Olimpia’s ability to find goals, even if the exact scoreline is uncertain. Overall, the away win probability is 44.7% versus 28.5% for Alianza and 26.8% for a draw, but the confidence is low (41) and the risk is high, so the result is not strongly one-sided.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-3

Pre-kickoff call

Under 2.5 Goals · 53.7% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.2875 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:52 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

More predictions

All CONCACAF Central American Cup predictions →

Team hubs: Alianza FC predictions · CD Olimpia predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.