Torneo Promocional Amateur
Pre-match
Medium risk

Uribelarrea vs Ezeiza

Tue, Aug 18, 04:00 PM

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 71/100

Model verdict
Medium risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Uribelarrea (LDWLD) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 0.9 for Ezeiza (WWLDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 71/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

71/100

Confidence
71/100

Strongest cover

1X

75.9% probability

Risk classification

Medium

29.0% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

U win46.9%
Draw29%
E win24.1%

Goals

Over 1.565.9%
Over 2.538.3%
Under 2.561.7%

Both teams to score

Yes44.3%
No55.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Uribelarrea

5/15 recent form points

LDWLD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.92
Shots on target
Unavailable

Ezeiza

7/15 recent form points

WWLDL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.82
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/1 and Over 2.5 in 0/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Ezeiza 0-0 Uribelarrea

2026-06-23T20:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Uribelarrea have been relatively solid defensively, conceding 9 goals in 12 matches and keeping 5 clean sheets. Their recent form includes two wins and two losses across the last five games, with overall scoring of 11 goals, suggesting they are not consistently involved in high-scoring contests. Ezeiza’s defense has been less dominant, with 14 goals conceded in 11 matches, but they also have 5 clean sheets, which points to some ability to limit scoring at times. Offensively they’ve scored 9 goals, and their recent run includes two wins and one loss in the last five, without strong evidence of frequent goal bursts. The goal-related probabilities lean toward a tighter game: over 2.5 goals is at 38.3%, while both teams to score is 44.3%. With Uribelarrea’s low total goals and Ezeiza’s moderate scoring output, the matchup profile supports an Under 2.5 Goals angle, though the medium risk reflects Ezeiza’s higher concession rate. So, the Under 2.5 Goals prediction fits the season scoring levels and the lower likelihood of three or more total goals, with confidence around 71 but not high certainty given Ezeiza’s tendency to concede more than Uribelarrea.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 18 Aug 2026 01:04 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Uribelarrea predictions · Ezeiza predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.