Pre-match

High risk

CSM Reşiţa vs Petrolul Ploiesti

Tue, Aug 18, 02:30 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 35/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

CSM Reşiţa (L) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.3 for Petrolul Ploiesti (WDLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

35/100

Confidence

35/100

Strongest cover

72.9% probability

Risk classification

High

27.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

58 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

CR win43.9%

Draw27.1%

PP win29%

Goals

Over 1.575.6%

Over 2.546.8%

Under 2.553.2%

Both teams to score

Yes51.4%

No48.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

CSM Reşiţa

0/3 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Petrolul Ploiesti

7/12 recent form points

WDLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/3 and Over 2.5 in 1/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 18, 12:52 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

CSM Reşiţa 0-1 Petrolul Ploiesti

2021-04-03T10:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

CSM Reşiţa 0-4 Petrolul Ploiesti

2020-09-06T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

CSM Reşiţa 1-1 Petrolul Ploiesti

2019-11-09T10:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +5.8%	3.40	29.4%	27.1%	-2.3%
	Betfair	3.30	30.3%	27.1%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	3.24	30.9%	27.1%	-3.8%
	1xBet	3.24	30.9%	27.1%	-3.8%
	Unibet	3.20	31.3%	27.1%	-4.1%
	BetVictor	2.90	34.5%	27.1%	-7.4%
Away 1X2	BetfairBest price +6.2%	3.30	30.3%	29.0%	-1.3%
	Bet365	3.25	30.8%	29.0%	-1.8%
	1xBet	3.20	31.3%	29.0%	-2.3%
	Marathonbet	3.14	31.8%	29.0%	-2.8%
	Unibet	2.95	33.9%	29.0%	-4.9%
	BetVictor	2.80	35.7%	29.0%	-6.7%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +4.0%	2.12	47.2%	43.9%	-3.3%
	1xBet	2.09	47.8%	43.9%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	2.07	48.3%	43.9%	-4.4%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	43.9%	-6.1%
	BetVictor	2.00	50.0%	43.9%	-6.1%
	Bet365	1.95	51.3%	43.9%	-7.4%
Over 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +6.3%	2.08	48.1%	46.8%	-1.3%
	Bet365	2.00	50.0%	46.8%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	1.98	50.5%	46.8%	-3.7%
	1xBet	1.98	50.5%	46.8%	-3.7%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	46.8%	-4.5%
	BetVictor	1.75	57.1%	46.8%	-10.3%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +5.6%	1.80	55.6%	53.2%	-2.4%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	53.2%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	1.74	57.5%	53.2%	-4.3%
	1xBet	1.74	57.5%	53.2%	-4.3%
	Unibet	1.61	62.1%	53.2%	-8.9%
	BetVictor	1.59	62.9%	53.2%	-9.7%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +3.4%	1.91	52.4%	48.6%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	1.89	52.9%	48.6%	-4.3%
	1xBet	1.89	52.9%	48.6%	-4.3%
	Unibet	1.80	55.6%	48.6%	-7.0%
	BetVictor	1.75	57.1%	48.6%	-8.5%
Yes BTTS	UnibetBest price +6.1%	1.87	53.5%	51.4%	-2.1%
	Betfair	1.80	55.6%	51.4%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	1.77	56.5%	51.4%	-5.1%
	1xBet	1.77	56.5%	51.4%	-5.1%
	BetVictor	1.60	62.5%	51.4%	-11.1%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +6.8%	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Betfair	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Marathonbet	1.60	62.5%	0.0%	-62.5%
	1xBet	1.60	62.5%	0.0%	-62.5%
	Unibet	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	BetVictor	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetVictorBest price +3.8%	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Marathonbet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	Unibet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	1xBet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +4.9%	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	1xBet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Unibet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	BetVictor	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%

Model reasoning

CSM Reşiţa at home has only played one match so far, losing 0-1, which leaves their home attacking output at 0 goals and their defensive record at 1 conceded. That limited sample makes their home win case weaker, even though the matchup is at home. Petrolul Ploiesti’s away record is more balanced, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss across four matches, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their recent form sequence (WDLW) suggests they can produce results away, and their goal numbers point to a fairly open game rather than a tight, low-scoring one. The probabilities reflect this: home win is 43.9% versus 29.0% for Petrolul and 27.1% for a draw, so a home edge exists but isn’t dominant. Over 2.5 goals is 46.8% and both teams to score is 51.4%, which aligns with the idea that Petrolul may create chances even if CSM Reşiţa manages to edge the match. With confidence at 35 and risk marked high, the home win lean is plausible but not strongly supported by the small home dataset and the relatively competitive away profile. A draw or an away win remains realistic given Petrolul’s ability to avoid defeat in some recent outings and the likelihood of both teams contributing goals.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:12 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.