J1 League
Finished
Medium risk

Shimizu S-pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos

01Full time
Sat, Aug 15, 09:30 AMIAI Stadium Nihondaira

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 72/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Shimizu S-pulse (WLLDL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.3 for Yokohama F. Marinos (LLWDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 72/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

72/100

Confidence
72/100

Strongest cover

12

74.0% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.0% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SS win42.9%
Draw26%
YFM win31.1%

Goals

Over 1.578.7%
Over 2.554.7%
Under 2.545.3%

Both teams to score

Yes58.5%
No41.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Shimizu S-pulse

4/15 recent form points

WLLDL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.20
Shots on target
Unavailable

Yokohama F. Marinos

7/15 recent form points

LLWDW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.60
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 7/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Shimizu S-pulse 0-1 Yokohama F. Marinos

2026-08-15T11:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Yokohama F. Marinos 3-0 Shimizu S-pulse

2026-06-06T10:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 Yokohama F. Marinos

2026-05-31T07:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Shimizu S-pulse 1-3 Yokohama F. Marinos

2025-08-16T11:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Yokohama F. Marinos 2-3 Shimizu S-pulse

2025-04-16T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Shimizu S-pulse 3-5 Yokohama F. Marinos

2022-07-02T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0 Shimizu S-pulse

2022-03-06T06:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Shimizu S-pulse 2-2 Yokohama F. Marinos

2021-08-09T11:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 Shimizu S-pulse

2021-05-30T06:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Yokohama F. Marinos 5-1 Shimizu S-pulse

2021-05-19T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Shimizu S-pulse have scored 24 goals and conceded 29 across 20 matches, with only 2 clean sheets, which suggests they can allow goals even when results vary. Their recent form is mixed (WLLDL), so they may not consistently control games at home. Yokohama F. Marinos have scored 32 goals and conceded 32, with 4 clean sheets, indicating they are capable of scoring but also conceding. Their away record is 7W 1D 12L and their recent form is also uneven (LLWDW), which supports the idea of a match where both sides find scoring chances. The probabilities align with this: both teams to score is 58.5%, and over 2.5 goals is 54.7%. With home win at 42.9% and away win at 31.1% alongside a 26.0% draw rate, a draw or a narrow win with goals from both teams looks plausible, so BTTS Yes fits best, though not with high certainty.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-1

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 58.5% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.3305 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Shimizu S-pulse predictions · Yokohama F. Marinos predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.