Pre-match

High risk

Racing Ferrol vs Real Avilés

Thu, Aug 13, 05:00 PM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 42/100

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Racing Ferrol (LWWLD) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1 for Real Avilés (DLDDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 42/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

42/100

Confidence

42/100

Strongest cover

72.9% probability

Risk classification

High

27.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

52 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

RF win43.3%

Draw27.1%

RA win29.6%

Goals

Over 1.568.8%

Over 2.548.5%

Under 2.551.5%

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%

No46.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Racing Ferrol

7/15 recent form points

LWWLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.33
Shots on target: Unavailable

Real Avilés

3/15 recent form points

DLDDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.60
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/2 and Over 2.5 in 2/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 13, 02:24 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Racing Ferrol 2-2 Real Avilés

2026-04-26T20:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Real Avilés 2-1 Racing Ferrol

2025-12-21T18:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	1xBetBest price +2.5%	3.37	29.7%	27.1%	-2.6%
	Bet365	3.30	30.3%	27.1%	-3.2%
	Betfair	3.30	30.3%	27.1%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	3.26	30.7%	27.1%	-3.6%
	BetVictor	3.25	30.8%	27.1%	-3.7%
	Betano	3.25	30.8%	27.1%	-3.7%
Away 1X2	BetVictorBest price +3.3%	3.10	32.3%	29.6%	-2.7%
	1xBet	3.05	32.8%	29.6%	-3.2%
	Betfair	3.00	33.3%	29.6%	-3.7%
	Betano	3.00	33.3%	29.6%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	2.95	33.9%	29.6%	-4.3%
	Bet365	2.90	34.5%	29.6%	-4.9%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +3.8%	2.22	45.0%	43.3%	-1.7%
	BetVictor	2.15	46.5%	43.3%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	2.14	46.7%	43.3%	-3.4%
	Betano	2.12	47.2%	43.3%	-3.9%
	Bet365	2.10	47.6%	43.3%	-4.3%
	Betfair	2.10	47.6%	43.3%	-4.3%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.8%	1.95	51.3%	48.5%	-2.8%
	1xBet	1.91	52.4%	48.5%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	1.89	52.9%	48.5%	-4.4%
	BetVictor	1.88	53.2%	48.5%	-4.7%
	Betano	1.85	54.1%	48.5%	-5.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.3%	1.85	54.1%	51.5%	-2.6%
	1xBet	1.82	54.9%	51.5%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	1.80	55.6%	51.5%	-4.1%
	BetVictor	1.79	55.9%	51.5%	-4.4%
	Betano	1.78	56.2%	51.5%	-4.7%
No BTTS	BetVictorBest price +0.8%	2.00	50.0%	46.5%	-3.5%
	1xBet	1.99	50.3%	46.5%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	1.96	51.0%	46.5%	-4.5%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.70	58.8%	53.5%	-5.3%
	BetVictor	1.70	58.8%	53.5%	-5.3%
	1xBet	1.70	58.8%	53.5%	-5.3%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +4.5%	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	Bet365	1.60	62.5%	0.0%	-62.5%
	BetVictor	1.60	62.5%	0.0%	-62.5%
	1xBet	1.59	62.9%	0.0%	-62.9%
	Betano	1.57	63.7%	0.0%	-63.7%
	Marathonbet	1.56	64.1%	0.0%	-64.1%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetVictorBest price +1.4%	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	1xBet	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Betano	1.31	76.3%	0.0%	-76.3%
	Bet365	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Marathonbet	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +2.1%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	BetVictor	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Betano	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	1xBet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%

Model reasoning

Racing Ferrol at home has been fairly balanced, with 8 goals scored and 9 conceded across 6 matches, and they’ve kept 2 clean sheets. Their recent form includes two wins and two draws in the last five results, but also a loss, suggesting they can compete but aren’t consistently dominant. Real Avilés away has struggled to win, with 0 wins in 5 matches, scoring 3 goals and conceding 5. They have 1 clean sheet, but their recent sequence shows they’ve often been held back offensively, even if they can limit goals at times. The matchup profile points toward both teams finding the net more often than not. Racing Ferrol’s low-to-moderate scoring and Real Avilés’ limited output still leave room for scoring from both sides, aligning with the 53.5% both teams to score probability and the 48.5% chance of over 2.5 goals. With BTTS Yes at 53.5% and a relatively high risk level, the main uncertainty is that Real Avilés’ away scoring is low (3 in 5), which could tilt the game toward a one-sided scoreline. The draw is also plausible given Ferrol’s 1D in 6 and Avilés’ 3 draws in 5.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 13 Aug 2026 01:30 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.