UEFA Europa League
Pre-match
Medium risk

Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica

Thu, Aug 13, 06:45 PMTynecastle Park

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 61/100

Model verdict
Medium risk

Away Win

Heart Of Midlothian (L) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.8 for Benfica (LWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 61/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

61/100

Confidence
61/100

Strongest cover

X2

76.7% probability

Risk classification

Medium

23.5% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

HOM win23.3%
Draw23.5%
B win53.2%

Goals

Over 1.580.5%
Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%

Both teams to score

Yes59.1%
No40.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Heart Of Midlothian

0/3 recent form points

L
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Benfica

6/9 recent form points

LWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
4.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Benfica 6-1 Heart Of Midlothian

2026-08-06T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Benfica’s away record looks stronger than Hearts of Midlothian’s home start. Benfica have 2 wins from 3 away matches with 12 goals scored and only 3 conceded, while Hearts have 1 match at home with 1 goal scored and 6 conceded. The goal profile also supports Benfica. Benfica’s 3 conceded across 3 away games and 1 clean sheet align with the higher probability for over 2.5 goals (57.3%) and both teams to score (59.1%), suggesting Benfica can create enough chances while Hearts are still likely to find some scoring. The market-style probabilities point to Benfica as the likelier outcome, with away win at 53.2% versus home win at 23.3% and draw at 23.5%. With confidence at 61 and risk marked medium, the edge for Benfica is meaningful but not dominant, so a draw or a low-margin upset remains plausible given Hearts’ conceded goals in their only home match.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 11 Aug 2026 19:56 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Heart Of Midlothian predictions · Benfica predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.