Pre-match

High risk

Cariari Pococi vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

Thu, Aug 13, 07:00 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 56/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Cariari Pococi (DDLLD) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.1 for Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (DWLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 56/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

56/100

Confidence

56/100

Strongest cover

74.1% probability

Risk classification

High

25.9% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

56 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

CP win47.2%

Draw25.9%

PSB win26.9%

Goals

Over 1.573.4%

Over 2.550.7%

Under 2.549.3%

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%

No45.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Cariari Pococi

3/15 recent form points

DDLLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.42
Shots on target: Unavailable

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

4/15 recent form points

DWLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.07
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/3 and Over 2.5 in 2/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 13, 12:29 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Cariari Pococi 2-2 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

2026-03-26T21:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 4-1 Cariari Pococi

2026-02-13T03:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1-1 Cariari Pococi

2025-10-29T22:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +1.1%	3.42	29.2%	25.9%	-3.3%
	1xBet	3.42	29.2%	25.9%	-3.3%
	Bet365	3.40	29.4%	25.9%	-3.5%
	Betfair	3.40	29.4%	25.9%	-3.5%
	Betano	3.40	29.4%	25.9%	-3.5%
	Unibet	3.25	30.8%	25.9%	-4.9%
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +2.6%	3.35	29.9%	26.9%	-3.0%
	Betfair	3.30	30.3%	26.9%	-3.4%
	1xBet	3.30	30.3%	26.9%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	3.24	30.9%	26.9%	-4.0%
	Bet365	3.20	31.3%	26.9%	-4.4%
	Betano	3.20	31.3%	26.9%	-4.4%
Home 1X2	BetanoBest price +1.8%	1.98	50.5%	47.2%	-3.3%
	1xBet	1.97	50.8%	47.2%	-3.6%
	Bet365	1.95	51.3%	47.2%	-4.1%
	Marathonbet	1.95	51.3%	47.2%	-4.1%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	47.2%	-4.1%
	Unibet	1.87	53.5%	47.2%	-6.3%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.7%	1.95	51.3%	49.3%	-2.0%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	49.3%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	1.88	53.2%	49.3%	-3.9%
	1xBet	1.88	53.2%	49.3%	-3.9%
	Betano	1.87	53.5%	49.3%	-4.2%
	Unibet	1.79	55.9%	49.3%	-6.6%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.9%	1.85	54.1%	50.7%	-3.4%
	Unibet	1.84	54.3%	50.7%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	1.81	55.2%	50.7%	-4.5%
	1xBet	1.81	55.2%	50.7%	-4.5%
	Betfair	1.80	55.6%	50.7%	-4.9%
	Betano	1.78	56.2%	50.7%	-5.5%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +5.4%	2.15	46.5%	45.3%	-1.2%
	1xBet	2.05	48.8%	45.3%	-3.5%
	Marathonbet	2.01	49.8%	45.3%	-4.5%
	Unibet	1.95	51.3%	45.3%	-6.0%
Yes BTTS	UnibetBest price +3.0%	1.73	57.8%	54.7%	-3.1%
	Betfair	1.67	59.9%	54.7%	-5.2%
	Marathonbet	1.66	60.2%	54.7%	-5.5%
	1xBet	1.66	60.2%	54.7%	-5.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +2.6%	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Bet365	1.70	58.8%	0.0%	-58.8%
	Unibet	1.68	59.5%	0.0%	-59.5%
	Marathonbet	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	1xBet	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	Betano	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +2.1%	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Betano	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Marathonbet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	1xBet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Unibet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetanoBest price +1.9%	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Unibet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	1xBet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%

Model reasoning

Cariari Pococi at home have a slightly stronger overall record than Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC on the road, with 7W 13D 11L versus 8W 10D 11L. Their goal record is also close, 44 scored and 45 conceded, suggesting matches can be fairly tight rather than one-sided. Pitbulls’ defense looks a bit more solid in terms of clean sheets, with 9 compared to Cariari’s 4, and they concede 32 goals away. However, their recent form is weaker, with DWLLL in the latest stretch, which lowers confidence in an away win even if their defense can keep games controlled. The market signals point to a close contest: home win is 47.2% versus away win at 26.9% and a draw at 25.9%. At the same time, both teams to score is favored at 54.7%, and over 2.5 goals is just above even at 50.7%, which fits a scenario where Cariari may edge it but not necessarily dominate. With home win projected at 47.2% and the draw still relatively likely, the home win call is plausible but not strongly supported, aligning with the high risk level and only moderate confidence (56).

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 13 Aug 2026 01:05 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Cariari Pococi predictions · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.