Pre-match

Medium risk

Andijan vs Neftchi

Thu, Aug 13, 02:00 PMBobur Arena

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 74/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

Andijan (LDWDL) project at 1 expected goals versus 1.4 for Neftchi (WWDDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 74/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

74/100

Confidence

74/100

Strongest cover

80.9% probability

Risk classification

Medium

25.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

51 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

A win19.1%

Draw25.1%

N win55.8%

Goals

Over 1.571.2%

Over 2.548%

Under 2.552%

Both teams to score

Yes50%

No50%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Andijan

5/15 recent form points

LDWDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.38
Shots on target: Unavailable

Neftchi

11/15 recent form points

WWDDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.38
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 13, 12:00 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Neftchi 3-0 Andijan

2026-03-10T15:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Neftchi 2-0 Andijan

2025-10-05T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Andijan 0-2 Neftchi

2025-05-09T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Andijan 0-0 Neftchi

2024-09-25T17:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Neftchi 2-2 Andijan

2024-05-12T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Neftchi 0-0 Andijan

2023-08-31T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Andijan 0-2 Neftchi

2023-04-08T14:55:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Neftchi 1-3 Andijan

2020-12-15T10:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Neftchi 1-2 Andijan

2016-08-19T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Andijan 2-1 Neftchi

2016-04-09T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	BetVictorBest price +4.4%	4.75	21.1%	19.1%	-2.0%
	Pinnacle	4.61	21.7%	19.1%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	4.60	21.7%	19.1%	-2.6%
	Betfair	4.60	21.7%	19.1%	-2.6%
	William Hill	4.40	22.7%	19.1%	-3.6%
	Bet365	4.33	23.1%	19.1%	-4.0%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +2.5%	3.60	27.8%	25.1%	-2.7%
	BetVictor	3.60	27.8%	25.1%	-2.7%
	Pinnacle	3.57	28.0%	25.1%	-2.9%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	25.1%	-3.5%
	Marathonbet	3.50	28.6%	25.1%	-3.5%
	William Hill	3.30	30.3%	25.1%	-5.2%
Away 1X2	PinnacleBest price +3.0%	1.72	58.1%	55.8%	-2.3%
	William Hill	1.67	59.9%	55.8%	-4.1%
	Bet365	1.67	59.9%	55.8%	-4.1%
	BetVictor	1.67	59.9%	55.8%	-4.1%
	Betfair	1.65	60.6%	55.8%	-4.8%
	Marathonbet	1.64	61.0%	55.8%	-5.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.2%	2.00	50.0%	48.0%	-2.0%
	Pinnacle	1.97	50.8%	48.0%	-2.8%
	Marathonbet	1.91	52.4%	48.0%	-4.4%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	48.0%	-4.4%
	BetVictor	1.90	52.6%	48.0%	-4.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +1.8%	1.83	54.6%	52.0%	-2.6%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	52.0%	-3.6%
	Betfair	1.80	55.6%	52.0%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	1.78	56.2%	52.0%	-4.2%
	BetVictor	1.78	56.2%	52.0%	-4.2%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.6%	1.87	53.5%	50.0%	-3.5%
	BetVictor	1.85	54.1%	50.0%	-4.1%
	Marathonbet	1.84	54.3%	50.0%	-4.3%
	William Hill	1.80	55.6%	50.0%	-5.6%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.8%	1.87	53.5%	50.0%	-3.5%
	William Hill	1.85	54.1%	50.0%	-4.1%
	BetVictor	1.83	54.6%	50.0%	-4.6%
	Marathonbet	1.80	55.6%	50.0%	-5.6%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetVictorBest price +2.0%	2.05	48.8%	0.0%	-48.8%
	William Hill	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Bet365	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Marathonbet	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.2%	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	BetVictor	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
Draw or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.3%	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	BetVictor	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Bet365	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Betfair	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Marathonbet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%

Model reasoning

Neftchi look more likely to win away, with a strong season record of 12W 3D 1L compared to Andijan’s 6W 3D 7L. Neftchi have also been far more effective defensively, conceding only 6 goals in 16 matches versus Andijan’s 17, which supports the away-win lean. In attack, Neftchi’s 38 goals scored is a clear edge over Andijan’s 22, and Neftchi’s 10 clean sheets compared to Andijan’s 6 suggests they can control games even when traveling. The recent form also tilts toward Neftchi, with “WWDDW” versus Andijan’s “LDWDL,” indicating more consistent results lately. The draw probability is still meaningful at 25.1%, and Andijan’s record includes enough draws and occasional wins to keep the outcome from looking one-sided. For goals, the over 2.5 market is slightly below coin-flip at 48.0%, and both teams to score is exactly 50.0%, so the win case doesn’t automatically imply a high-scoring match. Overall, the away win at 55.8% aligns with Neftchi’s superior results, goal difference profile, and clean-sheet rate, but the moderate confidence and medium risk reflect that a draw remains plausible.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 13 Aug 2026 00:04 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.