Pre-match

Medium risk

Cumbayá vs Santo Domingo

Thu, Aug 13, 08:30 PM

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 70/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Cumbayá (WDDDD) project at 1.1 expected goals versus 0.8 for Santo Domingo (DLLDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 70/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

70/100

Confidence

70/100

Strongest cover

73.1% probability

Risk classification

Medium

31.8% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

51 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

C win41.3%

Draw31.8%

SD win26.9%

Goals

Over 1.556.9%

Over 2.533%

Under 2.567%

Both teams to score

Yes40.5%

No59.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Cumbayá

7/15 recent form points

WDDDD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.95
Shots on target: Unavailable

Santo Domingo

5/15 recent form points

DLLDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.70
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/1 and Over 2.5 in 0/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 13, 03:09 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Santo Domingo 0-0 Cumbayá

2026-05-23T02:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	DafabetBest price +5.2%	3.45	29.0%	26.9%	-2.1%
	Superbet	3.30	30.3%	26.9%	-3.4%
	1xBet	3.28	30.5%	26.9%	-3.6%
	Betfair	3.25	30.8%	26.9%	-3.9%
	Bet365	3.20	31.3%	26.9%	-4.4%
	Marathonbet	3.20	31.3%	26.9%	-4.4%
Draw 1X2	SuperbetBest price +2.5%	2.90	34.5%	31.8%	-2.7%
	Dafabet	2.85	35.1%	31.8%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	2.81	35.6%	31.8%	-3.8%
	1xBet	2.81	35.6%	31.8%	-3.8%
	Bet365	2.80	35.7%	31.8%	-3.9%
	Betfair	2.80	35.7%	31.8%	-3.9%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +1.3%	2.27	44.1%	41.3%	-2.8%
	Dafabet	2.27	44.1%	41.3%	-2.8%
	Marathonbet	2.25	44.4%	41.3%	-3.1%
	Superbet	2.25	44.4%	41.3%	-3.1%
	Bet365	2.20	45.5%	41.3%	-4.2%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	41.3%	-4.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +4.7%	2.88	34.7%	33.0%	-1.7%
	Bet365	2.75	36.4%	33.0%	-3.4%
	Superbet	2.72	36.8%	33.0%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	2.70	37.0%	33.0%	-4.0%
	1xBet	2.70	37.0%	33.0%	-4.0%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.3%	1.40	71.4%	67.0%	-4.4%
	Marathonbet	1.36	73.5%	67.0%	-6.5%
	Betfair	1.36	73.5%	67.0%	-6.5%
	1xBet	1.36	73.5%	67.0%	-6.5%
	Superbet	1.36	73.5%	67.0%	-6.5%
Yes BTTS	SuperbetBest price +2.4%	2.32	43.1%	40.5%	-2.6%
	Betfair	2.30	43.5%	40.5%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	2.22	45.0%	40.5%	-4.5%
	1xBet	2.22	45.0%	40.5%	-4.5%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.0%	1.57	63.7%	59.5%	-4.2%
	1xBet	1.56	64.1%	59.5%	-4.6%
	Superbet	1.55	64.5%	59.5%	-5.0%
	Marathonbet	1.54	64.9%	59.5%	-5.4%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +1.6%	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
	Superbet	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
	Betfair	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	Marathonbet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	1xBet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
Home or Away Double Chance	SuperbetBest price +0.6%	1.34	74.6%	0.0%	-74.6%
	Bet365	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Marathonbet	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Betfair	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	1xBet	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +1.3%	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Superbet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	Marathonbet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	1xBet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%

Model reasoning

Cumbayá at home has been relatively solid defensively, conceding 16 goals in 20 matches and keeping 9 clean sheets. Their recent form is also steady with mostly draws and no heavy losing streak, which supports a game that may not open up too much. Santo Domingo’s away record is mixed, but their overall defensive numbers are comparable, with 13 goals conceded in 20 matches and 10 clean sheets. Their recent form includes more losses than Cumbayá’s, yet the low scoring profile from their season totals suggests they can keep the match controlled. With Cumbayá scoring 19 and Santo Domingo scoring 14 across the season, the combined output points to limited goal volume rather than a high-scoring shootout. The probabilities provided also lean that way, with over 2.5 goals at 33.0% and both teams to score at 40.5%. So an Under 2.5 Goals outcome fits the statistical balance, though it’s not assured given the draw possibility and Santo Domingo’s less consistent recent results.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 13 Aug 2026 03:02 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.