Pre-match

High risk

Mbeya City vs Dodoma Jiji

Wed, Aug 19, 11:00 AMSokoine Stadium

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 51/100

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Mbeya City (WDDWD) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 0.9 for Dodoma Jiji (LLDDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 51/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

51/100

Confidence

51/100

Strongest cover

72.3% probability

Risk classification

High

30.7% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

MC win41.6%

Draw30.7%

DJ win27.7%

Goals

Over 1.564.5%

Over 2.536.6%

Under 2.563.4%

Both teams to score

Yes44.7%

No55.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Mbeya City

9/15 recent form points

WDDWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.81
Shots on target: Unavailable

Dodoma Jiji

2/15 recent form points

LLDDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.86
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/8 and Over 2.5 in 3/8.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 19, 01:04 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Dodoma Jiji 1-1 Mbeya City

2026-06-27T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Mbeya City 1-1 Dodoma Jiji

2026-02-03T12:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Mbeya City 1-2 Dodoma Jiji

2022-12-18T12:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Dodoma Jiji 1-3 Mbeya City

2022-08-17T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Dodoma Jiji 2-1 Mbeya City

2022-04-23T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Mbeya City 2-0 Dodoma Jiji

2021-12-06T14:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Mbeya City 1-1 Dodoma Jiji

2021-03-09T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Dodoma Jiji 0-0 Mbeya City

2020-10-16T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +2.6%	3.25	30.8%	27.7%	-3.1%
	William Hill	3.20	31.3%	27.7%	-3.6%
	Bet365	3.20	31.3%	27.7%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	3.15	31.7%	27.7%	-4.0%
	10Bet	3.10	32.3%	27.7%	-4.6%
	Betfair	3.10	32.3%	27.7%	-4.6%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +3.8%	3.00	33.3%	30.7%	-2.6%
	10Bet	2.90	34.5%	30.7%	-3.8%
	William Hill	2.88	34.7%	30.7%	-4.0%
	Bet365	2.88	34.7%	30.7%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	2.88	34.7%	30.7%	-4.0%
	Unibet	2.80	35.7%	30.7%	-5.0%
Home 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +1.4%	2.23	44.8%	41.6%	-3.2%
	10Bet	2.20	45.5%	41.6%	-3.9%
	William Hill	2.20	45.5%	41.6%	-3.9%
	Bet365	2.20	45.5%	41.6%	-3.9%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	41.6%	-3.9%
	Unibet	2.16	46.3%	41.6%	-4.7%
Over 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +1.1%	2.55	39.2%	36.6%	-2.6%
	Betfair	2.55	39.2%	36.6%	-2.6%
	Bet365	2.50	40.0%	36.6%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	2.49	40.2%	36.6%	-3.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.1%	1.50	66.7%	63.4%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	1.46	68.5%	63.4%	-5.1%
	Betfair	1.45	69.0%	63.4%	-5.6%
	Unibet	1.41	70.9%	63.4%	-7.5%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +2.3%	2.10	47.6%	44.7%	-2.9%
	Marathonbet	2.06	48.5%	44.7%	-3.8%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	44.7%	-5.3%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +4.2%	1.73	57.8%	55.3%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	1.63	61.3%	55.3%	-6.0%
	William Hill	1.62	61.7%	55.3%	-6.4%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +1.8%	1.57	63.7%	0.0%	-63.7%
	Betfair	1.57	63.7%	0.0%	-63.7%
	William Hill	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
	Bet365	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
	Marathonbet	1.51	66.2%	0.0%	-66.2%
	Unibet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.3%	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Betfair	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Bet365	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Marathonbet	1.31	76.3%	0.0%	-76.3%
	Unibet	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	10Bet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.5%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Marathonbet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	10Bet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Unibet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%

Model reasoning

Mbeya City have scored 26 goals in 32 matches and conceded 41, which points to a relatively low scoring output at home. Their recent form includes several draws (WDDWD), suggesting games are not consistently producing many goals. Dodoma Jiji have scored 25 goals in 29 matches and conceded 33, with clean sheets in 12 matches. Their recent form (LLDDL) also leans toward tighter results, which can reduce the likelihood of a high total. The market probabilities align with this pattern: both teams to score is 44.7%, and over 2.5 goals is 36.6%. With under 2.5 goals implied by those figures, the under looks slightly more likely than over, but the confidence is only moderate (51) and the risk is high, so a 2-2 or 1-2 type game would be the main way the under fails.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Tue, 18 Aug 2026 20:05 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.