Osasuna vs Levante

Osasuna at home has a slightly better overall record than Levante, with 11 wins at home versus Levante’s 11 wins away, but both teams are fairly similar in points-style outcomes (11W 9D 18L for each). Osasuna’s goal profile is also close, scoring 44 and conceding 50, while Levante scores 47 and concedes 61, suggesting Levante’s defense has been more vulnerable overall. The recent form leans toward Levante, with Osasuna showing five straight losses (LLLLL) while Levante has a stronger mix including three wins in the last five (LWWWL). That contrast helps explain why the draw remains plausible and why Levante still has a meaningful chance despite the home advantage. The goal-related probabilities are fairly balanced but slightly favor a match with goals: both teams to score is at 47.2% and over 2.5 goals at 45.1%, which are not strong enough to confidently expect a high-scoring game. With Osasuna’s home clean sheets at 7 and Levante’s away clean sheets at 9, neither side looks dominant defensively, so a tight game with at least one scoring exchange is more likely than a shutout. Given the modest home edge (home win 53.4% vs draw 26.3% and away win 20.3%) and the high risk level driven by Osasuna’s poor recent run, a home win is a reasonable lean rather than a confident call. The confidence score of 53 also reflects that the matchup is close and recent form could swing the result.