Live

Medium risk

North Texas vs Austin II

0–054′

Thu, Aug 20, 12:45 AMChoctaw Stadium

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 75/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

North Texas (WLLWL) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.7 for Austin II (WLWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 75/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

75/100

Confidence

75/100

Strongest cover

78.3% probability

Risk classification

Medium

23.2% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

NT win21.7%

Draw23.2%

AI win55.1%

Goals

Over 1.582.2%

Over 2.559.1%

Under 2.540.9%

Both teams to score

Yes59.4%

No40.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

North Texas

6/15 recent form points

WLLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.67
Shots on target: Unavailable

Austin II

12/15 recent form points

WLWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.23
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 20, 12:14 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

North Texas 0-2 Austin II

2026-05-03T02:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Austin II 1-0 North Texas

2026-03-16T01:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Austin II 1-1 North Texas

2025-08-09T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

North Texas 1-2 Austin II

2025-06-15T02:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Austin II 1-1 North Texas

2025-04-12T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

North Texas 2-1 Austin II

2024-09-23T02:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Austin II 1-1 North Texas

2024-08-03T03:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

North Texas 3-3 Austin II

2024-06-23T02:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

North Texas 3-1 Austin II

2023-09-24T23:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Austin II 3-0 North Texas

2023-04-13T02:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	10BetBest price +7.3%	4.33	23.1%	21.7%	-1.4%
	Marathonbet	4.33	23.1%	21.7%	-1.4%
	William Hill	4.20	23.8%	21.7%	-2.1%
	Betfair	4.20	23.8%	21.7%	-2.1%
	Unibet	3.65	27.4%	21.7%	-5.7%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	21.7%	-6.9%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +4.8%	3.90	25.6%	23.2%	-2.4%
	Bet365	3.80	26.3%	23.2%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	3.78	26.5%	23.2%	-3.3%
	10Bet	3.70	27.0%	23.2%	-3.8%
	Unibet	3.65	27.4%	23.2%	-4.2%
	William Hill	3.50	28.6%	23.2%	-5.4%
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +5.2%	1.76	56.8%	55.1%	-1.7%
	Bet365	1.75	57.1%	55.1%	-2.0%
	William Hill	1.67	59.9%	55.1%	-4.8%
	10Bet	1.62	61.7%	55.1%	-6.6%
	Marathonbet	1.62	61.7%	55.1%	-6.6%
	Betfair	1.62	61.7%	55.1%	-6.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +6.1%	2.38	42.0%	40.9%	-1.1%
	Bet365	2.30	43.5%	40.9%	-2.6%
	Betfair	2.25	44.4%	40.9%	-3.5%
	Marathonbet	2.19	45.7%	40.9%	-4.8%
	10Bet	2.10	47.6%	40.9%	-6.7%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.0%	1.60	62.5%	59.1%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	1.59	62.9%	59.1%	-3.8%
	Betfair	1.57	63.7%	59.1%	-4.6%
	10Bet	1.55	64.5%	59.1%	-5.4%
	Unibet	1.46	68.5%	59.1%	-9.4%
No BTTS	UnibetBest price +8.9%	2.45	40.8%	40.6%	-0.2%
	William Hill	2.20	45.5%	40.6%	-4.9%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	40.6%	-4.9%
	Marathonbet	2.15	46.5%	40.6%	-5.9%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +3.4%	1.60	62.5%	59.4%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	1.58	63.3%	59.4%	-3.9%
	William Hill	1.57	63.7%	59.4%	-4.3%
	Unibet	1.44	69.4%	59.4%	-10.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	10BetBest price +7.5%	2.15	46.5%	0.0%	-46.5%
	Betfair	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	Marathonbet	2.03	49.3%	0.0%	-49.3%
	William Hill	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Bet365	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	Unibet	1.81	55.2%	0.0%	-55.2%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.0%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	10Bet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Bet365	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Marathonbet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Unibet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +4.1%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	William Hill	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Unibet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	10Bet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Marathonbet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%

Model reasoning

Austin II’s results look stronger overall, with a 17W-0D-5L record compared to North Texas’s 9W-0D-12L. Austin II also has a clear edge in goal difference, scoring 49 and conceding 22 versus North Texas scoring 35 and conceding 37, which supports the away win lean. The clean sheet numbers reinforce that gap. Austin II has 10 clean sheets, while North Texas has 3, suggesting Austin II is more likely to limit North Texas’s scoring chances even when playing away. Recent form also tilts toward Austin II: North Texas’s sequence is WLLWL, while Austin II’s is WLWWW. That combination of better form and stronger defensive output aligns with the away win probability of 55.1%. There’s also a moderate expectation for goals. Over 2.5 goals is at 59.1% and both teams to score is at 59.4%, so while Austin II is favored, the match could still produce scoring from both sides, keeping the risk at a medium level.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:02 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: North Texas predictions · Austin II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.