Finished

Low risk

Nõmme United II vs Nõmme Kalju II

2–0Full time

Mon, Aug 17, 04:00 PM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 80/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Low risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Nõmme United II (LLWLW) project at 2.3 expected goals versus 1.4 for Nõmme Kalju II (LLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 80/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

80/100

Confidence

80/100

Strongest cover

82.4% probability

Risk classification

Low

17.6% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

48 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

NUI win62.2%

Draw17.6%

NKI win20.2%

Goals

Over 1.589%

Over 2.580.4%

Under 2.519.6%

Both teams to score

Yes76.9%

No23.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Nõmme United II

6/15 recent form points

LLWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.78
Shots on target: Unavailable

Nõmme Kalju II

0/15 recent form points

LLLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.35
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 2/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 17, 12:20 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Nõmme Kalju II 4-1 Nõmme United II

2026-06-15T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nõmme United II 0-3 Nõmme Kalju II

2026-04-24T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +6.2%	5.10	19.6%	17.6%	-2.0%
	Betfair	5.00	20.0%	17.6%	-2.4%
	10Bet	4.75	21.1%	17.6%	-3.5%
	Bet365	4.75	21.1%	17.6%	-3.5%
	William Hill	4.60	21.7%	17.6%	-4.1%
	Unibet	4.60	21.7%	17.6%	-4.1%
Away 1X2	BetfairBest price +12.5%	4.75	21.1%	20.2%	-0.9%
	Marathonbet	4.40	22.7%	20.2%	-2.5%
	10Bet	4.33	23.1%	20.2%	-2.9%
	William Hill	4.20	23.8%	20.2%	-3.6%
	Unibet	3.95	25.3%	20.2%	-5.1%
	Bet365	3.70	27.0%	20.2%	-6.8%
Home 1X2	Bet365Best price +5.4%	1.57	63.7%	62.2%	-1.5%
	William Hill	1.50	66.7%	62.2%	-4.5%
	Unibet	1.50	66.7%	62.2%	-4.5%
	10Bet	1.48	67.6%	62.2%	-5.4%
	Marathonbet	1.45	69.0%	62.2%	-6.8%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	62.2%	-7.2%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +14.2%	5.50	18.2%	19.6%	+1.4%
	Bet365	5.00	20.0%	19.6%	-0.4%
	Unibet	3.95	25.3%	19.6%	-5.7%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.2%	1.14	87.7%	80.4%	-7.3%
	Unibet	1.13	88.5%	80.4%	-8.1%
	Betfair	1.11	90.1%	80.4%	-9.7%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +3.3%	4.20	23.8%	23.1%	-0.7%
	Marathonbet	4.10	24.4%	23.1%	-1.3%
	William Hill	3.90	25.6%	23.1%	-2.5%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +0.8%	1.20	83.3%	76.9%	-6.4%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	76.9%	-6.4%
	Marathonbet	1.17	85.5%	76.9%	-8.6%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +7.1%	2.50	40.0%	0.0%	-40.0%
	10Bet	2.45	40.8%	0.0%	-40.8%
	Marathonbet	2.38	42.0%	0.0%	-42.0%
	William Hill	2.30	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5%
	Bet365	2.25	44.4%	0.0%	-44.4%
	Unibet	2.12	47.2%	0.0%	-47.2%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.1%	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Bet365	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Marathonbet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	Unibet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	Betfair	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	10Bet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.8%	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	10Bet	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	Marathonbet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
	Unibet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%

Model reasoning

Nõmme United II have been involved in relatively open games, with 41 goals scored and 51 conceded across 23 matches. Their recent form includes some wins after a couple of losses (LLWLW), which suggests they can produce goals even if they are not consistently dominant. Nõmme Kalju II’s away profile points more toward defensive vulnerability, with 31 goals scored but 60 conceded in 23 matches, and a very poor recent run of LLLLL. That combination typically increases the chance of conceding at least once, which supports a higher total-goals outlook. With Nõmme United II’s ability to score and Kalju II’s tendency to concede, the matchup aligns with both teams scoring and a likely path to three or more goals. The provided probabilities also reflect this, with over 2.5 goals at 80.4% and both teams to score at 76.9%. Overall, the prediction leans toward Over 2.5 Goals with low risk, though Kalju II’s low win rate and United II’s mixed results mean it’s not guaranteed to reach the threshold every time.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-0

Pre-kickoff call

Over 2.5 Goals · 80.4%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

More predictions

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Team hubs: Nõmme United II predictions · Nõmme Kalju II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.