Ligue 1
Pre-match
High risk

Nice vs Lorient

Sat, Aug 22, 06:45 PMAllianz Riviera

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 51/100

Model verdict
High risk

BTTS Yes

Nice (DLDDW) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.3 for Lorient (WLDWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 51/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

51/100

Confidence
51/100

Strongest cover

12

73.7% probability

Risk classification

High

26.3% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

N win41.4%
Draw26.3%
L win32.3%

Goals

Over 1.578.2%
Over 2.553.8%
Under 2.546.2%

Both teams to score

Yes57.9%
No42.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Nice

6/15 recent form points

DLDDW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.14
Shots on target
Unavailable

Lorient

7/15 recent form points

WLDWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.41
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Lorient 0-0 Nice

2026-03-04T20:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Nice 3-3 Lorient

2026-02-22T17:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lorient 3-1 Nice

2025-11-30T17:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nice 3-0 Lorient

2024-04-19T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Lorient 1-1 Nice

2023-08-20T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Nice 1-1 Lorient

2023-03-19T15:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Lorient 1-2 Nice

2022-10-30T17:05:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nice 2-1 Lorient

2022-04-17T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lorient 1-0 Nice

2021-09-22T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Lorient 1-1 Nice

2021-03-14T15:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Nice have conceded 61 goals in 36 matches and kept 7 clean sheets, which suggests they are not consistently shutting opponents out. Their recent form includes multiple draws and losses, and their overall goal record (41 scored, 61 conceded) points to games where both sides can find scoring chances. Lorient’s season numbers are closer to a balanced profile, but they still allow 51 goals in 34 matches and have 7 clean sheets. Their recent form swings between wins and losses, and with 48 goals scored overall, they have enough attacking output to make Nice’s defensive record a concern. The matchup leans toward both teams scoring, with both teams to score at 57.9%. Over 2.5 goals is also slightly more likely than not at 53.8%, which fits the idea of a relatively open game rather than a low-scoring stalemate. With BTTS Yes at a 51 confidence score and a high risk level, this is a plausible direction but not a strong certainty, especially given Nice’s tendency toward draws and Lorient’s ability to sometimes control results.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

Team hubs: Nice predictions · Lorient predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.