La Liga
Pre-match
High risk

Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna

Mon, Aug 24, 07:30 PMEstadio La Rosaleda

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 51/100

Model verdict
High risk

BTTS Yes

Malaga (L) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.2 for Deportivo La Coruna (D). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 51/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

51/100

Confidence
51/100

Strongest cover

12

72.6% probability

Risk classification

High

27.4% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

M win38.2%
Draw27.4%
DLC win34.4%

Goals

Over 1.574.2%
Over 2.548.4%
Under 2.551.6%

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Malaga

0/3 recent form points

L
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Deportivo La Coruna

1/3 recent form points

D
xG / match
0.34
xGA / match
1.59
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/10 and Over 2.5 in 2/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Malaga

2026-04-04T18:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Malaga 3-0 Deportivo La Coruna

2025-10-12T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Malaga 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna

2025-01-11T18:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Deportivo La Coruna 0-0 Malaga

2024-10-06T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Malaga 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna

2020-07-08T19:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Deportivo La Coruna 0-2 Malaga

2019-10-20T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Malaga 0-1 Deportivo La Coruna

2019-06-15T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Deportivo La Coruna 4-2 Malaga

2019-06-12T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Malaga 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna

2019-02-24T18:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Malaga

2018-10-07T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Malaga at home have started with a 0-0-1 record, scoring 0 and conceding 2 in their only match, which suggests they’ve been vulnerable defensively so far. Deportivo La Coruna away have a 0-1-0 record with a 1-1 goal line, and their recent form is steadier with a draw. The both teams to score signal is slightly stronger than the draw or either side winning, with both teams to score at 53.6%. That aligns with Malaga conceding in their only game and Deportivo managing to find the net in theirs, even though neither team has shown much attacking output yet. Goal volume is less certain, but over 2.5 goals is still below a coin flip at 48.4%. With Malaga’s match already featuring two conceded goals and Deportivo’s match ending 1-1, a moderate chance of a low-to-mid scoring game remains, which supports BTTS Yes more than a clear lean to over 2.5. Overall, the BTTS Yes call fits the current scoring evidence from both teams, but the confidence is only 51 with a high risk level, reflecting the very small sample size of just one match each.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

Team hubs: Malaga predictions · Deportivo La Coruna predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.