Lyon vs Le Havre

Lyon at home have a stronger overall record than Le Havre away, with Lyon 18W-6D-10L versus Le Havre 7W-14D-13L. Lyon also have the better goal profile, scoring 53 and conceding 40, while Le Havre score 32 and concede 44, which supports Lyon having the edge in this matchup. The recent form is mixed for both sides, but Lyon’s run includes three wins in their last five (WWWLL), while Le Havre have one win in their last five (DDDLW). That pattern aligns with the home win leaning, though it’s not dominant given Lyon’s two recent losses. For scoring, Lyon’s season numbers suggest they can create chances, but the overall match goal likelihood is close to even: over 2.5 goals is 48.3% and both teams to score is 49.7%. With Le Havre’s away record including many draws and their conceded total not being extreme, a tight game or a draw remains plausible. So a Lyon home win is the lean (60.0% home win), but the confidence is only moderate and the risk is high because the goal and both-teams-to-score probabilities are near 50/50, leaving room for a less decisive outcome.