Pre-match

Medium risk

Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Gonio

Thu, Aug 20, 03:00 PMMikheil Meskhi Stadium

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 71/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (WWDWD) project at 1.1 expected goals versus 1.3 for Gonio (WWWWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 71/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

71/100

Confidence

71/100

Strongest cover

75.1% probability

Risk classification

Medium

24.9% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

49 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

LT win31.3%

Draw24.9%

G win43.8%

Goals

Over 1.569.1%

Over 2.548.7%

Under 2.551.3%

Both teams to score

Yes51%

No49%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

11/15 recent form points

WWDWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.94
Shots on target: Unavailable

Gonio

13/15 recent form points

WWWWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.65
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/5 and Over 2.5 in 2/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 20, 12:08 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Gonio 1-0 Lokomotivi Tbilisi

2026-03-25T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Gonio 2-1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi

2025-10-17T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1-1 Gonio

2025-08-18T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Gonio 2-1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi

2025-05-02T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1-1 Gonio

2025-03-08T15:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +4.9%	3.70	27.0%	24.9%	-2.1%
	1xBet	3.70	27.0%	24.9%	-2.1%
	Pinnacle	3.61	27.7%	24.9%	-2.8%
	Betfair	3.50	28.6%	24.9%	-3.7%
	10Bet	3.35	29.9%	24.9%	-5.0%
	William Hill	3.30	30.3%	24.9%	-5.4%
Home 1X2	BetfairBest price +14.0%	3.25	30.8%	31.3%	+0.5%
	Bet365	3.20	31.3%	31.3%	+0.1%
	Pinnacle	2.73	36.6%	31.3%	-5.3%
	10Bet	2.70	37.0%	31.3%	-5.7%
	William Hill	2.62	38.2%	31.3%	-6.9%
	1xBet	2.60	38.5%	31.3%	-7.2%
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +7.7%	2.25	44.4%	43.8%	-0.6%
	10Bet	2.20	45.5%	43.8%	-1.7%
	William Hill	2.20	45.5%	43.8%	-1.7%
	Pinnacle	2.07	48.3%	43.8%	-4.5%
	Bet365	1.91	52.4%	43.8%	-8.6%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	43.8%	-8.6%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.5%	1.95	51.3%	48.7%	-2.6%
	Pinnacle	1.94	51.5%	48.7%	-2.8%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	48.7%	-3.7%
	1xBet	1.85	54.1%	48.7%	-5.4%
	10Bet	1.77	56.5%	48.7%	-7.8%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.1%	1.85	54.1%	51.3%	-2.8%
	10Bet	1.83	54.6%	51.3%	-3.3%
	Betfair	1.80	55.6%	51.3%	-4.3%
	1xBet	1.80	55.6%	51.3%	-4.3%
	Pinnacle	1.78	56.2%	51.3%	-4.9%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +2.5%	1.95	51.3%	49.0%	-2.3%
	1xBet	1.91	52.4%	49.0%	-3.4%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	49.0%	-5.1%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.8%	1.85	54.1%	51.0%	-3.1%
	1xBet	1.85	54.1%	51.0%	-3.1%
	William Hill	1.75	57.1%	51.0%	-6.1%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +12.6%	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	William Hill	1.57	63.7%	0.0%	-63.7%
	1xBet	1.57	63.7%	0.0%	-63.7%
	Bet365	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
	10Bet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	1xBetBest price +4.8%	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	10Bet	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	William Hill	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Bet365	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +1.1%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	1xBet	1.23	81.3%	0.0%	-81.3%
	10Bet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%

Model reasoning

Gonio look more likely to take the points in this matchup. Their away record is stronger than Lokomotivi Tbilisi’s home record, with Gonio winning 10 of 17 compared to Lokomotivi’s 5 of 17. The probabilities also lean toward Gonio, with an away win at 43.8% versus 31.3% for a home win and 24.9% for a draw. Defensively, Gonio have the edge. They’ve conceded 12 goals in 17 matches and kept 10 clean sheets, while Lokomotivi have conceded 22 and recorded 6 clean sheets. That combination supports Gonio’s ability to limit Lokomotivi’s scoring chances, even though Lokomotivi’s recent form includes multiple draws. In attack, Gonio also have the better overall scoring output, with 28 goals scored compared to Lokomotivi’s 16. The goal-related probabilities align with this profile, with both teams to score at 51.0% and over 2.5 goals at 48.7%, suggesting a fairly balanced chance of goals but not a clear runaway. With a confidence score of 71 and a medium risk level, the away win case is reasonable, but the draw remains a meaningful alternative given Lokomotivi’s recent pattern of results (including two draws in their last five).

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 20 Aug 2026 13:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.