Pre-match

High risk

Arsenal Tula vs Rotor Volgograd

Thu, Aug 20, 03:30 PMStadion Arsenal

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 58/100

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Arsenal Tula (LLWDD) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.3 for Rotor Volgograd (WWLWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 58/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

58/100

Confidence

58/100

Strongest cover

70.0% probability

Risk classification

High

30.0% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

44 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AT win34.7%

Draw30%

RV win35.3%

Goals

Over 1.575.7%

Over 2.539.2%

Under 2.560.8%

Both teams to score

Yes46.4%

No53.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Arsenal Tula

5/15 recent form points

LLWDD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.83
Shots on target: Unavailable

Rotor Volgograd

10/15 recent form points

WWLWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.83
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/6 and Over 2.5 in 2/6.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 20, 08:33 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Arsenal Tula 2-2 Rotor Volgograd

2026-05-04T18:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Rotor Volgograd 1-2 Arsenal Tula

2025-11-03T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Arsenal Tula 1-1 Rotor Volgograd

2025-04-27T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Rotor Volgograd 0-1 Arsenal Tula

2024-07-29T19:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Rotor Volgograd 1-0 Arsenal Tula

2020-12-16T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Arsenal Tula 1-1 Rotor Volgograd

2020-11-07T14:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	1xBetBest price +3.3%	3.15	31.7%	30.0%	-1.7%
	Pinnacle	3.14	31.8%	30.0%	-1.8%
	Dafabet	3.10	32.3%	30.0%	-2.3%
	Marathonbet	3.06	32.7%	30.0%	-2.7%
	Superbet	3.05	32.8%	30.0%	-2.8%
	SBO	2.80	35.7%	30.0%	-5.7%
Home 1X2	PinnacleBest price +4.6%	2.82	35.5%	34.7%	-0.8%
	1xBet	2.80	35.7%	34.7%	-1.0%
	Marathonbet	2.72	36.8%	34.7%	-2.1%
	Superbet	2.65	37.7%	34.7%	-3.0%
	Dafabet	2.65	37.7%	34.7%	-3.0%
	SBO	2.54	39.4%	34.7%	-4.7%
Away 1X2	PinnacleBest price +2.9%	2.70	37.0%	35.3%	-1.7%
	1xBet	2.68	37.3%	35.3%	-2.0%
	Dafabet	2.65	37.7%	35.3%	-2.4%
	Superbet	2.62	38.2%	35.3%	-2.9%
	Marathonbet	2.60	38.5%	35.3%	-3.2%
	SBO	2.50	40.0%	35.3%	-4.7%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +2.5%	2.49	40.2%	39.2%	-1.0%
	1xBet	2.46	40.7%	39.2%	-1.5%
	Marathonbet	2.42	41.3%	39.2%	-2.1%
	Superbet	2.35	42.6%	39.2%	-3.4%
Under 2.5 Totals	1xBetBest price +1.8%	1.56	64.1%	60.8%	-3.3%
	Pinnacle	1.54	64.9%	60.8%	-4.1%
	Marathonbet	1.53	65.4%	60.8%	-4.6%
	Superbet	1.50	66.7%	60.8%	-5.9%
Yes BTTS	SuperbetBest price +0.3%	2.02	49.5%	46.4%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	2.01	49.8%	46.4%	-3.4%
	1xBet	2.01	49.8%	46.4%	-3.4%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +0.8%	1.72	58.1%	53.6%	-4.5%
	Marathonbet	1.70	58.8%	53.6%	-5.2%
	Superbet	1.70	58.8%	53.6%	-5.2%
Home or Draw Double Chance	1xBetBest price +3.3%	1.47	68.0%	0.0%	-68.0%
	Marathonbet	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Superbet	1.41	70.9%	0.0%	-70.9%
	SBO	1.37	73.0%	0.0%	-73.0%
Draw or Away Double Chance	1xBetBest price +2.5%	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Marathonbet	1.41	70.9%	0.0%	-70.9%
	Superbet	1.41	70.9%	0.0%	-70.9%
	SBO	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	1xBetBest price +2.8%	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Marathonbet	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Superbet	1.31	76.3%	0.0%	-76.3%
	SBO	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%

Model reasoning

Arsenal Tula have scored 5 goals in 6 matches and conceded 9, with 2 clean sheets, which points to relatively low scoring involvement. Their recent form includes two losses and one win in the last five results, suggesting they have not been consistently producing goals. Rotor Volgograd have been more productive, scoring 11 in 6 matches, but they also concede 8 and have only 2 clean sheets. Their recent form is stronger overall (two wins in the last five), yet the concession rate keeps the match from looking like a clear high-scoring game. The goal market leans toward fewer goals: the probability of over 2.5 goals is 39.2%, while both teams to score is 46.4%, which is not dominant. With Arsenal Tula’s low scoring output and both sides’ moderate defensive records, an under 2.5 goals outcome fits the provided probabilities, though the confidence is only moderate and the risk is high. Result-wise, the match is close across home win, draw, and away win, so the under case depends on game flow staying controlled rather than turning into an open contest.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:14 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.