Ykkösliiga
Finished
Medium risk

Kooteepee vs KäPa

21Full time
Sat, Aug 15, 05:00 PMArto Tolsa Areena

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 70/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

Home Win

Kooteepee (LDWWW) project at 2 expected goals versus 0.9 for KäPa (LLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 70/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

70/100

Confidence
70/100

Strongest cover

1X

87.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

19.0% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

K win68.6%
Draw19%
K win12.4%

Goals

Over 1.579.4%
Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Kooteepee

10/15 recent form points

LDWWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.74
Shots on target
Unavailable

KäPa

0/15 recent form points

LLLLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.05
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 8/8 and Over 2.5 in 8/8.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Kooteepee 2-1 KäPa

2026-08-15T19:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

KäPa 1-2 Kooteepee

2026-06-05T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Kooteepee 2-1 KäPa

2026-05-09T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

KäPa 1-2 Kooteepee

2026-03-14T18:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Kooteepee 7-2 KäPa

2024-09-27T17:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

KäPa 1-5 Kooteepee

2024-07-27T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Kooteepee 2-1 KäPa

2024-05-27T17:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

KäPa 4-2 Kooteepee

2023-01-21T17:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Kooteepee at home has been more reliable across the season, with 13 wins in 19 matches and a strong goal record of 33 scored versus 20 conceded. They also have 8 clean sheets, which suggests they can limit opponents consistently, and their recent form is notably better with LDWWW in the last five. KäPa’s away profile looks much weaker, with only 4 wins in 19 and 11 losses, plus a low scoring output of 20 goals while conceding 32. Their recent form is also poor at LLLLL, indicating they have struggled to generate results and maintain defensive stability. The match profile points to Kooteepee having the edge, reflected in the home win probability of 68.6% versus 12.4% for KäPa, with a draw still plausible at 19.0%. There’s also a slight lean toward over 2.5 goals (55.8%) and both teams scoring (52.3%), but those are closer to a coin-flip than a clear signal. Overall, the home win call fits the season and form gap, but the medium risk remains because the goal-market indicators are not overwhelmingly one-sided.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 67.1% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.0628 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sat, 15 Aug 2026 16:00 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Kooteepee predictions · KäPa predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.